Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Buying High (for example MEE)

Please MEE's recent stock trend, pull back and back up for the buying high!

Buying HighPosted By:Carlo DellaversonTopics:Stock Picks Stock MarketOne of the easiest ways Cramer uses to identify potential picks is simply by watching the new high list every day. Stocks on that list – the highest of the high – have something going for them or else they wouldn’t be there. Either they’re part of a major bull market, or the individual stocks themselves have serious momentum.

Most of the stocks on the new high list keep going higher unless something radical changes. But Cramer doesn’t just pluck names of the list thinking they will keep going up. Instead, he likes to wait for a stock to pull back from the new high list. This gives a good, lower-priced entry point in a stock that’s probably going to rebound.

But you need to be confident the stock that pulled back is going to make a comeback, Cramer stresses. Sometimes stocks pull back for good reason because a company is troubled and investors think it’s going down. But more often than not, stocks pull back from their highs because of profit-taking or some kind of panic in the market. As long as the company’s fundamental picture doesn’t change, the stock probably hasn’t fallen from grace. The fundamentals must be intact, or this method won’t help a bit, Cramer says.
Bottom Line: Look for stocks that have pulled back from the new high list – that’s the first method to Cramer’s madness, and where some of his best picks have come from.

Insider Trading: Bad; Insider Buying: Good_example CHK (up)

CHK is a good example at this time. CEO is buying the stock at the high

Sometimes a stock is so hot that you want to buy it wherever you can, as soon as you can, because it’s not going to go lower anytime soon. If you see insiders buying the stock when it’s at a 52-week high, that’s a clear sign that you want in, Cramer says. It’s rare, and it’s the exception rather than the rule, but pay attention when it happens. When insiders buy at the high, it’s a pretty good indication of their confidence in the business – and who knows the business better than the people running it?

Often, insiders buy small amounts of their stock to give the impression of confidence and to create an illusion that the company is doing better than it actually is. Be weary of this, Cramer says. The way to know if the insider buying is legit is when it’s big. If you see truly colossal insider buying, even if it isn’t at the high, then you should dig deeper. It’s the volume of the insider buying that declares its sincerity. And when an insider buys a truckload of his own stock at its high, it’s definitely arrogant – but it’s bankable. Corporate insiders aren’t going to buy at the high unless they have some unshakeable conviction about their companies. Most investors know to wait for a pullback before pulling the trigger. But when insiders buy high, that generally means they don’t think there’s going to be a pullback. There’s nothing more bullish than that, Cramer says.

Bottom Line: When you see insider buying in a stock that’s at a 52-week high, Cramer thinks you should be buying too.

Ripe For a Squeeze

There’s another scenario where insider buying is a great sign to buy. When a stock has a heavy short position, it means there are a lot of people who have serious conviction that the stock is going lower. Shorting is essentially the opposite of real investing. Instead of buying low and selling high, shorts sell high and buy low.

It takes more effort and certainty to short a stock than it does to get long. When you’re short, the potential downside is infinite because a stock can always go higher. But when you’re long, the downside ends at $0. And when there are a lot of shorts – and a stock suddenly gets some good news – you get the all-important short squeeze. The shorts have to buy, and when they do it all at once in a panic, the stock will surge because of all the new demand.

A heavily shorted stock, in combination with insider buying, often makes for an explosive combination, Cramer says. If a stock has a big short position and then the people who run the company start buying up shares, you can bet there’s going to be a short squeeze. While shorts are usually smart, they aren’t smarter about the business than the people who actually run it. If a lot of people are shorting a stock, betting it goes lower, and management is buying it, you’re going to want to side with management, Cramer says, and ride the short squeeze higher and higher.

Bottom Line: Insider buying plus a heavy short position equals buy in Cramer’s book.

TAN

Claymore Securities introduced a new ETF on Tuesday called Claymore/MAC Global Solar Index
Claymore MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF
TAN
27.14 1.17 +4.51%
NYSE Arca

, explains Dylan Ratigan. Essentially it tracks solar and clean energy stocks.

Top 5 Fund Holdings

First Solar - 8.77 %
Renewable Energy Corp - 7.45 %
Q-Cells - 6.44 %
Suntech Power Holdings - 6.19 %
Ja Solar Holdings - 5.25 %

Tricks of the Trades: Cramer's Mad Money (4.14.08)

Stocks discussed in the in-depth session of Jim Cramer’s Mad Money TV program, Monday April 14. Click on a stock ticker for more analysis:
Note: Monday's Mad Money program was a rebroadcast of a show that first aired on June 25, 2007.

Rainy Days and Mondays
Cramer devoted Monday's show to giving his viewers more insights into how he trades. For those who are frustrated with "rainy days," Cramer suggests using down times to shop for fallen stocks, particularly those which are upgraded by analysts, since they usually go up after the selloff is over.

True Value
While the term "undervalued" is thrown around alot, Cramer provided a formula to determine the value of a stock. "If a stock has a price-to-earnings multiple -- remember E (the earnings) times M (the multiple) equals P (the price) -- that's lower than its growth rate, then that stock is cheap," Cramer said. However, he warned this is not a hard and fast rule, since stock may seem cheap because earnings estimates need to be cut, are not such good buys if their fundamentals are declining, or if they are going to miss their earnings targets. Similarly, a stock may seem expensive, but "if its earnings need to be revised higher, its multiple will come down, and it has more room to run," said Cramer. While the market is dynamic and does not lend itself to rigid rules, Cramer emphasized stocks with accelerating growth are more valuable than those with de-celerating growth, which should be sold. Even if one envisions a comeback for a sluggish stock, it should be sold and re-purchased, according to Cramer.

Hitting Bottom
It is very difficult to determine when a stock has bottomed, and instead of predicting the lowest point, Cramer would buy with "wide scales" on the way down, gradually purchasing more; "when it's so low you can hardly believe how poorly the stock is trading, you double down," he said. However, it is still important to leave room to put more money in when the stock finally bites the dust. Good indications that a stock has bottomed are when most of the analysts have downgraded it or when it doesn't decline lower on bad news. Heavy insider buying after a decline is a "sure sign" a stock is a buy.

When Bad Things Happen to Good Stocks
Cramer took issue with the notion that when a stock gets hammered it somehow deserved it; "Plenty of great companies are unfairly sold off by investors who simply don't get it," he said. He emphasized homework is necessary to determine the difference between a broken stock and a broken company. Cramer recommended making a shopping list of favorite companies which are being forced down. He warned against assuming a so-called "blue chip" stock is invincible, because "there is no such thing as a blue chip." Finally, when Cramer would sell into strength when the stock has completed its run.

Jim Cramer's 5 Favorite Investment Techniques, Mad Money (4/15/08)

Stocks discussed in the in-depth session of Jim Cramer’s Mad Money TV program, Tuesday April 15.. Click on a stock ticker for more analysis:


Note: The following program is a re-broadcast of a show that first aired on June 19, 2007.
Cramer's Top Five Investment Tricks

Cramer devoted Tuesday's Mad Money program to discussed five "methods to his madness."

1. Watch the New High List

Many of the stocks that become Cramer's top picks are taken from the new high list. However, he doesn't just copy the list, but waits for the stocks to pull back and does research on the companies. Whether the names are part of a general bull market or are individual companies with merit, the stocks on this list usually go higher, according to Cramer. He warned investors not to wait for just any pullback, but to make sure the stock didn't pull back for a good reason.

2. Insider buying and a 52-Week High

Insider buying of a stock that has reached its 52-week high is a bullish sign, because it shows that investors do not believe there will be a pullback. Although not all insider buying is necessarily worthy of note, and sometimes it can be a confidence game, but when insider buying is "truly colossal," and the stock has already moved, it is time to pay attention.

3. Insider Buying and a Heavy Short Position

Insider buying and a heavy short position is also a sign to invest, because it signals a short squeeze , or a turn of the tide when the shorts start buying to protect themselves. While shorts may be smart, they do not know more about a company than its management, said Cramer,

4. Trading around a Core Position

"Find a stock that you believe will be going higher over the long term," Cramer said. Such stocks may go up and down on market volatility, but are slowly headed up. For those who own 300 shares of a $100 stock as a trade, Cramer recommneds selling 50 shares every time the stock rises 3%, shaving some off to bring in profts. Then, as the stock goes down, Cramer suggests buying it back in increments, purchasing 50 shares every time it falls 3%. Cramer urged investors not to own less than 100 shares and not more than 300; "The basic idea is to avoid putting yourself in a position where you have too much on the table in case the stock gets swatted down, or too little on the table to take advantage of any upside that comes your way," he said.

5. The Inevitable Implosion of Hot Stocks

Cramer defines "hot" stocks as small stocks which rise fast, have little research and sparse analyst coverage. The time to jump off the bandwagon is when four analysts are covering the stock. He used Hansen Natural as a hot stock which finally fell last summer after it was covered by its fatal fourth analyst from Goldman Sachs.

Saturday, April 12, 2008

发信人: coke1 (coke), 信区: Stock标 题: 刚开始炒股的朋友近来一下发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Mar 14 18:18:12 2008)

最近收到很多PM.都有些共同点. 又是星期五, 所以说几句. 太罗索的话, 就别看吧. 我人老了是罗索一点的了.
千万不能无脑跟. D56老大说过, 跟人能一直跟赚钱的自己炒股不会差到哪去. 所以在自己还没有头绪之前, 是不能跟人的. 跟错了比自己做死得更快.很多人的钱是辛苦赚来的. 所以没有理由随便在个网站看个人说就用自己的血汗钱来买的. 就算这人是Warren Buffett.
买股票之前, 有几个步骤是一定要做的,不做的话就是盲从.盲从其实就是买lottery.如果要买lottery,倒不如拿钱去给mutual fund管省力.
1. 你能不能在用几个句子告诉你自己你为什么要买这个股票? 如果你说不出理由. 你绝对不能买.
2.说出punch line过后, 你要考虑一下有什么风险.如果新手不知道怎么开始做分析. 先看看bbs, yahoo message board.最重要是正反两方的论点都要仔细想一想. 你想了过后你比较相信哪一边.
3. 看图. 过去一个月.过去三个月.过去一年. 你看得出来大概support level和resistance level在那里吗?如果过去一个月一直在下, 你知道原因吗? 如果过去一个月在上, 你知道原因吗? 如果你不知道原因, 如果继续这样下, 你怎么办? 如果一直在涨, 万一转向了, 你怎么办? 如果不知道怎么办. 不买.
4. 问下自己准备亏多少钱不会影响自己心情太严重的. 钱是为了过更好的生活. 为了钱影响自己的生活品质就不值得了.
如果你可以承受亏$2000块在一个股上面,你觉得短期内这股如果下的话, 顶多就下到$20,现在$25.那你就买400股. 如果准备average down,就第一次买买小于400股.
5.赚了一定%过后就最少卖一半.
6.少trade,多看, 多想.
5. --
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发信人: heixie2001 (天一怕啥), 信区: Stock标 题: Re: 刚开始炒股的朋友近来一下发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Apr 12 13:11:30 2008)


经验提出了二十四条"军规",指出,为了在股票市场上取得成功,交易者必须有明确的规则并遵照执行,任何人只要遵守它们就会获得成功。
  在此列出二十四条"军规",仅供投资者参考。
  1、资金的使用量 将你的资金分成十等份,永不在一次交易中使用超过十分之一的资金。
  2、用止蚀单 永远在离你成交价的3至5点处设置止蚀单,以保护投资。
  3、永不过度交易 这会搞坏你的资金使用规则。
  4、永不让盈利变成损失 一旦你获得了3点或更多的利润,请立即使用止蚀单,这样你就不会有资本的损失。
  5、不要逆势而为 如果你根据走势图,无法确定趋势何去何从,就不要买卖。
  6、看不准行情的时候就退出,也不要在看不准行情的时候入市。
  7、仅交易活跃的股票 避免介入那些运动缓慢、成交稀少的股票。
  8、平均分摊风险 如果可能的话,交易4只或5只股票。避免把所有的资金投到一只股票上。
  9、不要限制委托条件,或固定买卖价格用市价委托。
  10、若没有好的理由,就不要平仓用止蚀单保护你的利润。
  11、累积盈余如果你进行了一系列成功的交易,请把部分资金划入盈余账户,以备在紧急情况之下,或市场出现恐慌之时使用。
  12、永不为了获得-次分红而买进股票。
  13、永不平均分配损失这是交易者犯下的最糟糕的错误之一。 全球最大的中文金融门户 证券
  14、永不因为失去耐心而出市,也不要因为急不可耐而入市。
  15、避免赢小利而亏大钱。
  16、不要在进行交易的时候撤消你已经设置的止蚀单。
  17、避免出入市过于频繁。
  18、愿卖的同时也要愿买让你的目的与趋势保持一致并从中获利。
  19、永不因为股价低而买入,或因为股份高而卖出。
  20、小心在错误的时候加码等股票活跃并冲破阻力位后再加码买入,等股票跌破主力派发区域后再加码放空。
  21、挑选小盘股做多,挑选大盘股放空。
  22、永不对冲如果你做多一只股票、而它开始下跌,就不要卖出另-只股票来补仓。你应当离场、认赔,并等待另-个机会。
  23、若没有好的理由,就永不在市场中变换多空位置在你进行交易时,必须有某种好的理由,或依照某种明确的计划;然后,不要在市场未出现明确的转势迹象前离场。
  24、避免在长期的成功或盈利后增加交易。
  当你决定进行一笔交易的时候,必须确信没有触犯这二十四条规则中的任何一条,这些规则对于你的成功来说至关重要。当你割肉时,请回顾这些规则,看看你违反了哪一条;然后不再重蹈覆辙。
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