Friday, January 14, 2011

Cramer’s 25 Trading Rules

Cramer’s 25 Trading Rules

Rule 1: Bulls, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
It's essential for all traders to know when to take some off the table. More

Rule 2: It's OK to Pay the Taxes
Stop fearing the tax man and start fearing the loss man because gains can be fleeting. More

Rule 3: Don't Buy All at Once
To maximize your profits, stage your buys, work your orders and try to get the best price over time. More

Rule 4: Buy Damaged Stocks, Not Damaged Companies
There are no refunds on Wall Street, so do your research and focus your trades on damaged stocks rather than companies. More

Rule 5: Diversify to Control Risk
If you control the downside and diversify your holdings, the upside will take care of itself. More

Rule 6: Do Your Stock Homework
Before you buy any stock, it's important to research all aspects of the company. More

Rule 7: No One Made a Dime by Panicking
There will always be a better time to leave the table, so it is best to avoid the fleeing masses. More

Rule 8: Buy Best-of-Breed Companies
Investing in the more expensive stock is invariably worth it because you get piece of mind. More

Rule 9: Defend Some Stocks, Not All
When trading gets tough, pick your favorite stocks and defend only those. More

Rule 10: Bad Buys Won't Become Takeovers
Bad companies never get bids, so it's the good fundamentals you need to focus on. More

Rule 11: Don't Own Too Many Names
It can be constraining, but it's better to have a few positions you know well and like. More

Rule 12: Cash Is for Winners
If you don't like the market or have anything compelling to buy, it's never wrong to go with cash. More

Rule 13: No Woulda, Shoulda, Couldas
This damaging emotion is destructive to the positive mindset needed to make investment decisions. More

Rule 14: Expect, Don't Fear Corrections
It is not always clear when a correction will strike, so expect and be prepared for one at all times. More

Rule 15: Don't Forget Bonds
It's important to watch more than stocks, and bonds are stocks' direct competition. More

Rule 16: Never Subsidize Losers With Winners
Any trader stuck in this position would do well to sell sinking stocks and wait a day. More

Rule 17: Check Hope at the Door
Hope is emotion, pure and simple, and trading is not a game of emotion. More

Rule 18: Be Flexible
Recognize and be open to the unexpected shifts in the market because business, by nature, is dynamic, not static. More

Rule 19: When the Chiefs Retreat, So Should You
High-level executives don't quit a company for personal reasons, so that is a sign something is wrong. More

Rule 20: Giving Up on Value Is a Sin
If you don't have patience, think about letting someone who does run your money. More

Rule 21: Be a TV Critic
Accept that what you hear on television is probably right, but no more than that. More

Rule 22: Wait 30 Days After Preannouncements
Preannouncements signal ongoing weakness, wait 30 days to see if anything has gotten better before you pull the trigger to buy. More

Rule 23: Beware of Wall Street Hype
Never underestimate the promotion machine because analysts get behind stocks and can keep them propelled in an up direction well beyond reason. More

Rule 24: Explain Your Picks
Buying stocks is a solitary event, too solitary in fact, so always make sure you can articulate your reasoning to someone else. More

Rule 25: There's Always a Bull Market
It's OK if you have to work hard to find it, just don't default to what's in bear mode because you are time-constrained or intellectually lazy. More

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Cramer's 7 Stocks Worth Speculating On

Qualcomm's [QCOM 52.07 0.38 (+0.74%) ] plans to buy Atheros Communications [ATHR 44.60 -0.17 (-0.38%) ] for roughly $3.2 billion in cash opens the door for a slew of other mergers and acquisitions, Cramer said Monday.

In the wake of this deal, many investors are betting on companies that could be taken out. Cramer highlighted seven companies that not only have potential to be acquired, but sport sound fundamentals that give them upside potential:

Acme Packet [APKT 60.23 -0.148 (-0.25%) ]: This $3.86 billion company makes equipment known as session border controllers, which enable better delivery of voice, video and data services over converged networks. It has a 60 percent market share in this business and is expected to grow by 25 percent for the next 3-5 years. The stock is trading at 55 times earnings, but that's not unreasonable considering its 32 percent long-term growth rate.

Netgear [NTGR 36.40 0.15 (+0.41%) ]: This is one of just two companies that make home networking equipment, like modems, routers and wireless adapters. Atheros makes chips for this kind of equipment, so Cramer thinks Netgear could get taken out, too. The stock is selling for less than 17 times earnings, which is lower than its 17.5 percent long-term growth rate.

Cirrus Logic [CRUS 18.19 0.19 (+1.06%) ]: CRUS makes chips that help convert data into sound, which then go into Apple's [AAPL 341.64 -0.815 (-0.24%) ] iPad and iPhone, for example. The stock has been very volatile, but Cramer said investors are coming back to the stock on the belief Cirrus' products will go into a new batch of Apple products. Right now, this stock is trading at 12 times next year's earnings with a 20 percent long-term growth rate.

Motricity [MOTR 20.52 0.32 (+1.58%) ]: This stock has pulled back 10 points after a huge-up since its initial public offering in June. The company operates mobile Web portals for four of the biggest U.S. wireless carriers, including AT&T[ATT 26.40 -0.16 (-0.6%) ], Verizon [VZ 35.36 -0.56 (-1.56%) ], Sprint [S 4.40 -0.18 (-3.93%) ] and T-Mobile. It boasts an 80 percent market share and profits from a subscription business model. The stock sells for 25 times earnings, but Cramer thinks it's cheap considering its 25 percent long-term growth rate.

Akamai [AKAM 48.75 -0.04 (-0.08%) ]: This company speeds up and improves the delivery of all kinds of content over the Internet, Cramer said. The stock has been climbing lately and he thinks it has more room to run. It's selling for 29 times next year's earnings with a 17 percent growth rate.

NVIDIA [NVDA 20.31 -0.321 (-1.56%) ]: This technology company makes a host of products for netbooks, tablets and smartphones. Cramer said the stock is a little pricey, though, being as it's trading at 28 times next year's earnings with a 14 percent long-term growth rate.

ARM Holdings [ARMH 23.41 0.74 (+3.26%) ]: The intellectual property company designs and licenses chips to major technology companies, Cramer said. Its products are in 95 percent of all mobile phones and MP3 players, including the iPhone and iPad. The stock trades at 50 times 2011 earnings with a 20 percent long-term growth rate.

Cramer's F.A.D.S. C.A.N.

Cramer: 7 Stocks the Hedge Funds Will Be After

Published: Tuesday, 23 Nov 2010 | 7:12 PM ET Text Size
By: Drew Sandholm



Despite stocks ending sharply lower Tuesday, Cramer told investors not to give up. After all, he said the mechanics of this market are on your side.

As we head into the final six weeks of the year, the S&P 500 index remains up 6 percent year-to-date and the fundamentals remain strong. Typically, hedge fund managers would lock in gains by taking profits at the end of the year. This year, however, many money managers are trailing the gains because they were more focused on macro-economic concerns than how individual companies were performing. Desperate to close the performance gap versus the averages, they are piling into momentum names with high-growth, like Cramer's F.A.D.S. C.A.N.:

F5 Networks [FFIV 142.65 -0.04 (-0.03%)

Apple [AAPL 341.64 -0.815 (-0.24%)

Deckers [DECK 79.06 -1.38 (-1.72%)

Salesforce.com [CRM 141.12 -1.52 (-1.07%)

Chipotle [CMG 220.79 -2.88 (-1.29%)

Amazon.com [AMZN 184.34 -0.34 (-0.18%)

Netflix [NFLX 186.65 -1.23 (-0.65%)

Since Nov. 2, the F.A.D.S. C.A.N. stocks are up an average of 11 percent versus a 1 percent decline in the S&P over the same period. Despite the bad tape on Tuesday, DECK, CRM and CMG all hit 52-week highs.

"With so many money managers lagging the benchmarks because they didn't manage their portfolios well, the big boys are going to have to chase momentum going into the end of the year," Cramer said. "That's one more reason to buy the F.A.D.S. C.A.N. names."

[转贴] 散户为何挣不到钱的五大原因

[转贴] 散户为何挣不到钱的五大原因

第一,为什么散户总是输多赢少?

散户之所以涨的时候赚的钱不够亏的时候赔的钱,主要是因为在涨升阶段换股频繁喜欢狙击短线,结果赚下来都是一小段一小段的利润;而市场往往在完成涨升阶段后下跌都是陡峭的角度杀盘,几天就可以把一个月赚的赔光。而且散户十个中九个赔,但没有人想到他就是那一个,所有人都将自己“合理的自大”,算在赚钱的 10%之中,当然也没有人想过为什么股票的钱这么难赚;投资选股是在和拥有庞大资金实力与调研研究人员的机构抗衡,与出其不意的政策抗衡,与群众的非理性的情绪抗衡,同时自己内心也在天人交战,还要承担看似不多累计起来吓人的交易成本。散户并不拥有那么多行业的专业知识,能够看清行业发展的未来,更多依赖不稳定的技术分析系统和盘口表现做出决策,本身就居于投资领域竞争的弱势,只有超级大牛市市场出现整体机会时散户才有赚钱机会,而这种机会仅占股市发展过程中15%,可惜散户把任何阶段都当成大牛市来操作对待,能长期赚钱真是奇迹。

第二,散户为什么会频繁交易

因为每个人都认为下一笔交易是难得一见的神奇交易,可以赚一整年,就是所谓的“大金刚效应”大金刚从荣耀的巅峰下摔死一样,很多人常常在赔掉一切后结束交易。很多投资者天天选股,深怕错过每一笔神奇的交易,结果会引起不断的期盼和频繁交易,而忽略资金控管的重要性,只知道整天研究“决策”,花大半的时间在 “决策”要买哪只股票,但真正赚钱的部分不是选股,而是资金管理。如何在买入一只股票后决定出场点和时机,大多数投资者没有计划,结果大部分出场点都是赔到痛才出场,有时连之前赚的都看不见了。对于在上升趋势的股票投资者又不愿意花时间等待,每天市场都有热点和亮点,新热点起来时盯盘的投资者又耳热心跳忍不住不去操作,结果手上的持股还没有走完又转战到不熟悉的领域,以选股为重心的操作往往就会导致频繁交易。股价总是震荡上行的,大家都总是想赚到所有的波段,没有人那么厉害,再涨也不会一路涨上去买不到,有涨得稳的,有涨得慢的,但投资者心态总是随着正常的波动反复改变。回调和下跌是两回事,绝大多数区别不了,如果区别不了其中的差异,永远做不好股票。

第三,散户为什么不愿意停损?

人的心态永远都是回避风险的,总认为发生了亏损可以不必理会,而且还不断地往下看支撑,这是和大多数人只能想像和接受有利于自己的事物,不善于接受不利于自己的环境有关。物质社会让人心态失衡,最关键的一点就是大家都看到“得到”的“好处”,而不能接受“失去”的“坏处”。对停损的重要性往往估计不足。其实下跌浪发生了找支撑是件吃力不讨好的事情,因为下跌的速度往往会比上涨的速度大3倍!恐惧比乐观还要危险,何况底部确认不易,越聪明的人越会犹豫,人们总是打心底以为无视风险就等于逃开了风险,不善停损的人往往缺乏自律精神,都是不愿意尊重负面因素,就像酒鬼不愿意承认自己酗酒,高估自己在酒精诱惑下的自控能力一样,投资者往往会低估了结损失带来的灾难。一旦发现损失总是希望反弹回来自己的本钱,但亏损本身已经实际发生了,再发展下去就是更大的亏损—— 2007年买入银行股的投资者最终套牢两年不得解套,而1997年买入四川长虹不愿意停损的投资已经套牢14年!更为遗憾的是不愿停损的投资最终扛不住市场强大的趋势压力,往往会在惨赔了50%甚至更多的时候结束这痛苦的一切,接下来会在心理失衡的状态下继续更加糟糕的投资,有的甚至再难重新振作回到市场,反而会走向另外一个极端——稍有盈利立马结算,陷入我们所说的第二个频繁交易的陷阱里去。所以不会停损,不执行停损带来的冲击不仅仅是金钱上的损失,还有一股更大的习惯势力将自己远远拉离成功的道路。

第四,散户为什么赚不到大波段翻倍的钱?

每个投资者在交易开始之初都是怀抱美好的愿望,认为买进的股票可以大赚一年,翻一倍甚至N倍,即使持有的股票应声上涨了也很少有人能够赚到股票成倍上涨的钱。我们做过一个统计,在多年的数据和客户跟踪中我们了解到当股票上涨幅度超过20%时,兑现的压力往往就快速出现了;当股票上涨到50%时,股票中持有的散户基本被清理出场了。当然在震荡市中压缩利润空间是很正常的,但即使在中国一个股票要做到翻倍最快也要9个月的时间,在成熟市场最快也是两年到三年。几乎没有人愿意花一年甚至两年的时间无所事事;更重要的是散户每天都在计算自己赚了多少钱,而不是以证券资产的形式管理自己的财富,不是将资产放在最妥当的公司身上获取利益,每天都要将股票折算成现金的方式有个坏作用,一旦发现股价波动市值稍有缩水就急于结算,结果和大牛股擦肩而过;

第五,为什么散户承受的心理压力比机构大?

散户承受的心理压力往往比机构大很多,我接触过很多成功的基金、券商资产管理公司的老总,即使在最熊的市场里,他们依然是歌舞升平马照跑舞照跳酒照喝。不是因为他们管理的不是自己的钱,而是他们对配置的公司里里外外都非常了解,本身在信息和判断上就研究得很透;每个成功的管理人后面都有风控组把持,出现状况风控组可以按程序执行不需要内心太多的纠结。但最关键的两点:成功的管理人把投资失误看成是资金管理中必不可少的环节,特别是不受到配置股票限制的私募基金管理人,对资产配置的研究超过对买卖时机的研究,接受和承认自己可能发生的错误,努力将失误的代价控制在最少的范围内;另外一点就是当利润走势有利于他们时,他们的持股可以放很长很长时间让利润奔跑,每个成功的资金管理人都明白一个道理:这是他一辈子的事业。而散户总是梦想这几个月发一次大财,还有一笔钱用来装修房子或出国旅游——如果投资不是你将要从事20年的事业,那么自然就会把20年累计的压力放在2个月来承受,这样的心理压力下要想投的对,投得准,但愿老天开眼吧。