Jan 2nd, 2008_Short, short, short!!
URRE($12.48), might go to 50 MA, around $11.85.
ASTI($24.86), might go to $20-22
TISI ($36.58), targeted to $33.00
HOKU ($11.40)
possible: MICC($117.94), MR($42.97), DLB($49.72), TLVT($28.41, target $25.5)
Long:
NOV
Watchlist:
BOOM ($58.9, wait for the pull back in 50MA $57.59)
LKQX($21.02)
VIP($41.06), SYNA($41.16)
SNHY($25.23), ININ($26.35)
Watch NED at the same time
Monday, December 31, 2007
Saturday, December 29, 2007
ETF for 2008 (YTD in 2006-2007)
1. EWZ (Brazil), 77.15%
3. PBW (Clean energy), 60.56%
4. PZD (Clean Technology), 44.17%
5. ILF (latin america), 50.92%
6. FXI and ADRE (Diversified Emerging Markets), 55.52%, 44.59%
7. SLX (steel), 86.87%
8. CAF
2. INP (India), 87.93% (in MSN money, not in google finance)
ADRE doesn't show up in google finance too.
3. PBW (Clean energy), 60.56%
4. PZD (Clean Technology), 44.17%
5. ILF (latin america), 50.92%
6. FXI and ADRE (Diversified Emerging Markets), 55.52%, 44.59%
7. SLX (steel), 86.87%
8. CAF
2. INP (India), 87.93% (in MSN money, not in google finance)
ADRE doesn't show up in google finance too.
Dec. 29, 2007
发信人: ManOf35 (对酒当歌,人生几何), 信区: Stock标 题: 新年RALLY,万事具备,只待钟声发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Dec 29 00:33:28 2007)
俺是一个Ultra ETF player,很少碰个股,星期三俺在SPX 1500时把占帐户60%的SSO换成了一堆LOSER,C,book value $22.5,美联储的大股东,花街的主要推手,其时值在缩水40%后仍相当与any two of (MER,GS,MS) plus BSC plus LEH, 从TA上,我很喜欢那个sharppositive price/MACD divergence,请注意这是一个follow up divergence,在第一个divergence出现后,C涨了15%. M,COH,SBUX,全球著名品牌,股价都是三年低,M和COH有雏形price/MACD positive divergence待确认.我对这些loser有长期hold的充分准备.UYG,still accounts for 40% of my portfolio with average price of $45.
COMP即将以10%UP结束2007,SPX/DOW are both historically high level,在这种大盘高水平的情况下,flying recession words are bullish from contrarian point of view. 生与忧患,死于安乐,股市也一样.现在这种负面的情感为the coming earning report做了极好的铺垫,ORCL/RIMM 已经给了我们一个乐观的信号.很多人看空C,如果你说credit紧缩,赢利基本面受影响,这是一个无可辩驳的point,如果你仅仅由于write-down而看空C的话,那就太小儿科了.在2000年有个TELE COM公司,几年由于多次一次性WRITE-DOWN没挣一分钱,但每次WRITE-DOWN后股票都SHARP RALLY,这就是花街的密码.不管你损失多少，花街希望你把它ＭＡＲＫ上成为过去
俺是一个Ultra ETF player,很少碰个股,星期三俺在SPX 1500时把占帐户60%的SSO换成了一堆LOSER,C,book value $22.5,美联储的大股东,花街的主要推手,其时值在缩水40%后仍相当与any two of (MER,GS,MS) plus BSC plus LEH, 从TA上,我很喜欢那个sharppositive price/MACD divergence,请注意这是一个follow up divergence,在第一个divergence出现后,C涨了15%. M,COH,SBUX,全球著名品牌,股价都是三年低,M和COH有雏形price/MACD positive divergence待确认.我对这些loser有长期hold的充分准备.UYG,still accounts for 40% of my portfolio with average price of $45.
COMP即将以10%UP结束2007,SPX/DOW are both historically high level,在这种大盘高水平的情况下,flying recession words are bullish from contrarian point of view. 生与忧患,死于安乐,股市也一样.现在这种负面的情感为the coming earning report做了极好的铺垫,ORCL/RIMM 已经给了我们一个乐观的信号.很多人看空C,如果你说credit紧缩,赢利基本面受影响,这是一个无可辩驳的point,如果你仅仅由于write-down而看空C的话,那就太小儿科了.在2000年有个TELE COM公司,几年由于多次一次性WRITE-DOWN没挣一分钱,但每次WRITE-DOWN后股票都SHARP RALLY,这就是花街的密码.不管你损失多少，花街希望你把它ＭＡＲＫ上成为过去
Friday, December 28, 2007
Newbie Options
发信人: BrainTeaser (rockhand), 信区: Stock标 题:
偶也来说说option发信站:
BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Dec 28 18:08:35 2007)
偶玩option并不是很久.本人纯属于福星高照,新手鸿运无法挡的一类人.所以有的经验也不一定适合所有人.玩option 主要是玩人心. 我只玩能够让我比较安心的option.
1.卖covered call.在stock 走势良好的时候, 如果我看到stock的相对上行软弱,我就卖一些covered call当股票开始向下调整的时候, 我就随时准备在一定的地方将call 买回来,白赚一笔.如果stock继续高走,我也没有什么心理上的压力,因为我就是出让一些我的利润而已.外加oe之前冻结我一笔资金.
2.卖put如果我做stock的short.当我在stop loss的地方close 我的position 的时候.我会用我的short 利润的50%做我的 backup money 出售 put如果put 价格继续上扬,我在我耗尽我backup money的时候把put买回来close position.如果put 价格开始和我预期的下跌符合,我就在rule下,到时候买回我的put.
3.再说说裸买call 和 put这个心理压力是非常大的.其中最主要的关键是option bid/ask spread100 contracts 0.3 的价格滑动,就会溜走3k对于习惯8-10% stop loss 的朋友, 玩option 往往刚买入就到了自己的stop loss line了.我将我的option stop 定在35%因为我成功的option 最少也有50%的profit
如果我等10次中对6次那么我的profit 率就是.65^4*1.5^6=2.03
如果我只能10次中对5次10次操作后 0.88 损失在12%, 是我stock 的stop loss line当然任何人都无法这样玩几率, 35% stop loss 连续输 2次 资产一半都没有了,还有多少人有勇气面对后面的再输2次,赢6次的几率?我是不敢的.
所以我直接买call 和 put 的次数现在越来越少.投入资金比率也越来越少.到现在我基本focus在卖covered call 和 半利润卖put在最近的market里,我总有无数的机会在低价close 我的postion.如果一开始的stock选择是错误的,我能很好的控制我的10% stop loss.如果第二笔 卖 call 和 put 是错误的,我不过转让我的部分利润,起码没有亏. 我的心理线不会失守.玩裸买call 和 put 的朋友.希望你们少量下注. 或者玩qqqq那种众人玩, bid/ask spread 小容易控制的option另外就是当爆发性突变发生的时候,不玩简直就是手痒.比如昨天aapl的两次put的机会, 第一次亏钱stop loss 了, 第二次大赚了.just my newbie sense.
偶也来说说option发信站:
BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Dec 28 18:08:35 2007)
偶玩option并不是很久.本人纯属于福星高照,新手鸿运无法挡的一类人.所以有的经验也不一定适合所有人.玩option 主要是玩人心. 我只玩能够让我比较安心的option.
1.卖covered call.在stock 走势良好的时候, 如果我看到stock的相对上行软弱,我就卖一些covered call当股票开始向下调整的时候, 我就随时准备在一定的地方将call 买回来,白赚一笔.如果stock继续高走,我也没有什么心理上的压力,因为我就是出让一些我的利润而已.外加oe之前冻结我一笔资金.
2.卖put如果我做stock的short.当我在stop loss的地方close 我的position 的时候.我会用我的short 利润的50%做我的 backup money 出售 put如果put 价格继续上扬,我在我耗尽我backup money的时候把put买回来close position.如果put 价格开始和我预期的下跌符合,我就在rule下,到时候买回我的put.
3.再说说裸买call 和 put这个心理压力是非常大的.其中最主要的关键是option bid/ask spread100 contracts 0.3 的价格滑动,就会溜走3k对于习惯8-10% stop loss 的朋友, 玩option 往往刚买入就到了自己的stop loss line了.我将我的option stop 定在35%因为我成功的option 最少也有50%的profit
如果我等10次中对6次那么我的profit 率就是.65^4*1.5^6=2.03
如果我只能10次中对5次10次操作后 0.88 损失在12%, 是我stock 的stop loss line当然任何人都无法这样玩几率, 35% stop loss 连续输 2次 资产一半都没有了,还有多少人有勇气面对后面的再输2次,赢6次的几率?我是不敢的.
所以我直接买call 和 put 的次数现在越来越少.投入资金比率也越来越少.到现在我基本focus在卖covered call 和 半利润卖put在最近的market里,我总有无数的机会在低价close 我的postion.如果一开始的stock选择是错误的,我能很好的控制我的10% stop loss.如果第二笔 卖 call 和 put 是错误的,我不过转让我的部分利润,起码没有亏. 我的心理线不会失守.玩裸买call 和 put 的朋友.希望你们少量下注. 或者玩qqqq那种众人玩, bid/ask spread 小容易控制的option另外就是当爆发性突变发生的时候,不玩简直就是手痒.比如昨天aapl的两次put的机会, 第一次亏钱stop loss 了, 第二次大赚了.just my newbie sense.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Five Trends To Watch In 2008
Five Trends To Watch In 2008
By Timothy LuttsPublished December 22, 2007
In 2007, the biggest trend - still ongoing - was the rise in solar power stocks. And next year? Here are my five best guesses for the trends that will reward investors in 2008.
One. The race to alternative energy will continue, and solar power will remain the leading light of the industry. High oil prices and rising demand for non-polluting power will be the big drivers for the industry, but equally important for investors in the stocks will be the growing public perception of the sector. While active investors are clearly aware of the performance of the leading stocks, the man-on-the-street is not. Solar power is not yet the talk of the town, and until it is, I think the sector's current strong uptrend can continue. First Solar (FSLR) is the king of this hill today, but Suntech Power (STP) and JA Solar (JASO) are close behind.
Two. Investment in faster-growing foreign companies will continue to reward. The China boom remains amazingly resilient, and while I'm concerned that the advent of the 2008 Olympics may mark a temporary high-water market for the China market, I have little doubt that the demographic and capitalistic forces transforming that country will continue. Ditto for India, which is several years behind China on the same path, as well as Brazil. Russia, because it has amazing natural resources, has awesome potential, but I'm disappointed with its backward-looking government; I'm more impressed by the progress at former soviet satellites like Azerbaijan (with 35% GDP growth), Latvia (11.9% growth), Estonia (11.4% growth) Kazakhstan (10.6% growth) and Belarus (9.9% growth). Foreign stocks I like (traded in the U.S. as ADRs) are Baidu (BIDU), New Oriental Education (EDU) and Turkcell (TKC).
Three. The build-out of the utility infrastructure in developing nations will reward investors in two sectors. First will be the global construction and engineering firms that accomplish these big products: think power lines, dams, water filtration plants, gas pipelines and more. Second will be the local utilities that evolve to distribute these goods to consumers. This is not rocket science; these companies merely need to follow the paths trod by U.S. companies over the past century and their earnings will multiply rapidly. Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) is a leader here, and I also like Companhia de Saneamento (SBS) in Brazil.
Four. Resources of all sorts are meeting with growing demand in China, India and other countries, and there's no sign yet that supply will catch up with demand. Companies that benefit from this trend are those that own, mine, create, and deal in gold, silver, coal, copper, iron ore, steel, phosphate and silicon. Also benefiting are the companies that make the equipment these companies use. I like Bucyrus (BUCY) and Deere (DE) and I also like silicon producer MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), which gets a boost from the solar power industry.
Five. Communications will continue its process of rapid evolution. We'll see greater access to wireless networks, and greater bandwidth everywhere as content becomes increasingly rich. Apple (AAPL) is a high-profile leader in this space today, and you can read more about that great company below.
By Timothy LuttsPublished December 22, 2007
In 2007, the biggest trend - still ongoing - was the rise in solar power stocks. And next year? Here are my five best guesses for the trends that will reward investors in 2008.
One. The race to alternative energy will continue, and solar power will remain the leading light of the industry. High oil prices and rising demand for non-polluting power will be the big drivers for the industry, but equally important for investors in the stocks will be the growing public perception of the sector. While active investors are clearly aware of the performance of the leading stocks, the man-on-the-street is not. Solar power is not yet the talk of the town, and until it is, I think the sector's current strong uptrend can continue. First Solar (FSLR) is the king of this hill today, but Suntech Power (STP) and JA Solar (JASO) are close behind.
Two. Investment in faster-growing foreign companies will continue to reward. The China boom remains amazingly resilient, and while I'm concerned that the advent of the 2008 Olympics may mark a temporary high-water market for the China market, I have little doubt that the demographic and capitalistic forces transforming that country will continue. Ditto for India, which is several years behind China on the same path, as well as Brazil. Russia, because it has amazing natural resources, has awesome potential, but I'm disappointed with its backward-looking government; I'm more impressed by the progress at former soviet satellites like Azerbaijan (with 35% GDP growth), Latvia (11.9% growth), Estonia (11.4% growth) Kazakhstan (10.6% growth) and Belarus (9.9% growth). Foreign stocks I like (traded in the U.S. as ADRs) are Baidu (BIDU), New Oriental Education (EDU) and Turkcell (TKC).
Three. The build-out of the utility infrastructure in developing nations will reward investors in two sectors. First will be the global construction and engineering firms that accomplish these big products: think power lines, dams, water filtration plants, gas pipelines and more. Second will be the local utilities that evolve to distribute these goods to consumers. This is not rocket science; these companies merely need to follow the paths trod by U.S. companies over the past century and their earnings will multiply rapidly. Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) is a leader here, and I also like Companhia de Saneamento (SBS) in Brazil.
Four. Resources of all sorts are meeting with growing demand in China, India and other countries, and there's no sign yet that supply will catch up with demand. Companies that benefit from this trend are those that own, mine, create, and deal in gold, silver, coal, copper, iron ore, steel, phosphate and silicon. Also benefiting are the companies that make the equipment these companies use. I like Bucyrus (BUCY) and Deere (DE) and I also like silicon producer MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), which gets a boost from the solar power industry.
Five. Communications will continue its process of rapid evolution. We'll see greater access to wireless networks, and greater bandwidth everywhere as content becomes increasingly rich. Apple (AAPL) is a high-profile leader in this space today, and you can read more about that great company below.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
12-26-2007 watch list
FSLR, SPWR, CSIQ
NOV, SII, CAM
FCX, PCU
RIG, ATW, DO
POT, MOS, CF, AGU, MON
Others, BEAV, HOLX, GME, OI
Russia: VIP, MBT, MTL
China: EDU, STP, YGE, CSUN, SOLF, FMCN
NOV, SII, CAM
FCX, PCU
RIG, ATW, DO
POT, MOS, CF, AGU, MON
Others, BEAV, HOLX, GME, OI
Russia: VIP, MBT, MTL
China: EDU, STP, YGE, CSUN, SOLF, FMCN
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