Broad-Based Commodity Indexes
GSG - iShares S&P/Goldman Sachs Commodity Index
DBC - PowerShares Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index
Precious Metals
DGL - PowerShares Deutsche Bank Gold Fund
DBS - PowerShares Deutsche Bank Silver Fund
Energy
USO - United States Oil Fund
USL - United States 12-Month Oil Fund
UNG - United States Natural Gas Fund
DBE - PowerShares Deutsche Bank Energy Fund
Industrial Metals
DBB - PowerShares Deutsche Bank Base Metals Fund
Agriculture
DBA - PowerShares Deutsche Bank Agriculture Fund
Monday, January 28, 2008
Proshares
Watch out below. There is sure to be more volatility to the downside in the coming weeks, as the carry trade and proprietary traders continue to unwind profitable trades.
Finding themselves unable to collect on credit default swaps vis-a-vis AMBAC (ABK), MBIA (MBI), ACA, large institutions (banks) and hedge funds are finding themselves under pressure from a substantial cash call.
An example of this danger came to light when a little-known firm called ACA Financial Guaranty caused some of Wall Street’s biggest banks to write down billions of dollars in holdings, restating their value on corporate balance sheets. ACA revealed last month that it had promised to cover $60 billion worth of mortgage and corporate debt, but had enough cash to cover only a fraction of that. Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and financial institutions in Canada and France, which had all sold swaps to ACA, set aside billions in case the firm collapsed.
Most of the strength that the market is witnessing is due to short covering and this will manifest itself over and over during the next two to four weeks.
Institutions are still unwinding their profitable trades to raise cash. The market goes down. Then short covering occurs, and you get what appears to be a bounce or recovery in stock prices. The problem is that as long as the cash call remains larger than the outstanding short positions the market will continue to trend lower.
Don Coxe, in January’s Basic Points, puts it in these terms:
Sadly, the central bankers have been forced into injections of all-time record amounts of liquidity. Jim Cramer and some other prominent apologists for Wall Street glitterati screamed, “The Fed doesn’t get it,” and demanded bailouts for their buddies who faced demotion from Croesus status to morally cretinous status. The biggest benefi ciaries from these bailouts were not overstressed homeowners, but the biggest, baddest, borrowers who had made the biggest, baddest, bets through use of complex derivatives.
Despite strong openings Friday, both the Dow and TSX look unable to hang on to gains. You also have to look at trading volume for clues about the weakness of the recovery. Volumes are down 20% at the NYSE and 15% at NASDAQ.
Assuming you agree with the idea that there is more downside in the market, there are some relatively new and interesting ways that you can take positions on the short side to reduce downside that do not involve derivatives or short positions. In particular there are a new breed of ETFs that provide short exposure to various sectors and country bets. These are aptly referred to as ’short’ and ’double-short’ ETFs.
ProShares has created ETFs that trade inversely with the markets. These allow investors and traders to hedge against market downturns or that want to bet against the market. These ETFs are very liquid and actively traded and are designed to go up when indexes go down. As a reminder, the SHORT funds use no leverage, but the UltraShort funds employ leverage. Here is partial list by Fund (Ticker):
UltraShort QQQ (AMEX: QID)
UltraShort Dow30 (AMEX: DXD)
UltraShort S&P500 (AMEX: SDS)
UltraShort MidCap400 (AMEX: MZZ)
UltraShort SmallCap600 (AMEX: SDD)
UltraShort Russell2000 (AMEX: TWM)
UltraShort MSCI EAFE (AMEX: EFU)
UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (AMEX: FXP)… short selling FTSE Xinhua 25 index (FXI).
UltraShort Basic Materials (AMEX: SMN)
UltraShort Consumer Goods (AMEX: SZK)
UltraShort Consumer Services (AMEX: SCC)
UltraShort Financials (AMEX: SKF)
UltraShort Health Care (AMEX: RXD)
UltraShort Industrials (AMEX: SIJ)
UltraShort Oil & Gas (AMEX: DUG)
UltraShort Real Estate (AMEX: SRS)
UltraShort Semiconductors (AMEX: SSG)
UltraShort Technology (AMEX: REW)
UltraShort Utilities (AMEX: SDP)
Short MSCI Emerging Markets (AMEX:EUM)
Short MSCI EAFE (AMEX: EFZ)
Short QQQ (AMEX: PSQ)
Short Dow30 (AMEX: DOG)
Short S&P500 (AMEX: SH)
Short MidCap400 (AMEX: MYY)
Short SmallCap600 (AMEX: SBB)
Short Russell2000 (AMEX: RWM)
On the TSX in Canada, Horizons BetaPro Funds have launched ‘double-short’ ETFs that trade inversely with the market (they also have corresponding ‘double-bull’ versions of these). Canadian investors and traders can use these to protect against downturns or simply bet against the market.
Horizons BetaPro COMEX® Gold Bullion Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HBD]
Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Global Mining® Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HMD]
Horizons BetaPro DJ-AIGSM Agricultural Grains Bear Plus [TSX: ETF HAD]
Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX 60® Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HXD]
Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Capped Financials® Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HFD]
Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Capped Energy® Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HED]
Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Global Gold® Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HGD]
Horizons BetaPro NYMEX® Natural Gas Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HND]
Horizons BetaPro NYMEX® Crude Oil Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HOD]
Horizons BetaPro COMEX® Gold Bullion Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HBD]
Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Global Mining® Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HMD]
Look at it this way; if you already have long positions that have appreciated, but you’ve got a longer term holding period in mind that is not determined by market conditions, this may a viable option to capture some of the potential downside.
Disclosure: none
Finding themselves unable to collect on credit default swaps vis-a-vis AMBAC (ABK), MBIA (MBI), ACA, large institutions (banks) and hedge funds are finding themselves under pressure from a substantial cash call.
An example of this danger came to light when a little-known firm called ACA Financial Guaranty caused some of Wall Street’s biggest banks to write down billions of dollars in holdings, restating their value on corporate balance sheets. ACA revealed last month that it had promised to cover $60 billion worth of mortgage and corporate debt, but had enough cash to cover only a fraction of that. Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and financial institutions in Canada and France, which had all sold swaps to ACA, set aside billions in case the firm collapsed.
Most of the strength that the market is witnessing is due to short covering and this will manifest itself over and over during the next two to four weeks.
Institutions are still unwinding their profitable trades to raise cash. The market goes down. Then short covering occurs, and you get what appears to be a bounce or recovery in stock prices. The problem is that as long as the cash call remains larger than the outstanding short positions the market will continue to trend lower.
Don Coxe, in January’s Basic Points, puts it in these terms:
Sadly, the central bankers have been forced into injections of all-time record amounts of liquidity. Jim Cramer and some other prominent apologists for Wall Street glitterati screamed, “The Fed doesn’t get it,” and demanded bailouts for their buddies who faced demotion from Croesus status to morally cretinous status. The biggest benefi ciaries from these bailouts were not overstressed homeowners, but the biggest, baddest, borrowers who had made the biggest, baddest, bets through use of complex derivatives.
Despite strong openings Friday, both the Dow and TSX look unable to hang on to gains. You also have to look at trading volume for clues about the weakness of the recovery. Volumes are down 20% at the NYSE and 15% at NASDAQ.
Assuming you agree with the idea that there is more downside in the market, there are some relatively new and interesting ways that you can take positions on the short side to reduce downside that do not involve derivatives or short positions. In particular there are a new breed of ETFs that provide short exposure to various sectors and country bets. These are aptly referred to as ’short’ and ’double-short’ ETFs.
ProShares has created ETFs that trade inversely with the markets. These allow investors and traders to hedge against market downturns or that want to bet against the market. These ETFs are very liquid and actively traded and are designed to go up when indexes go down. As a reminder, the SHORT funds use no leverage, but the UltraShort funds employ leverage. Here is partial list by Fund (Ticker):
UltraShort QQQ (AMEX: QID)
UltraShort Dow30 (AMEX: DXD)
UltraShort S&P500 (AMEX: SDS)
UltraShort MidCap400 (AMEX: MZZ)
UltraShort SmallCap600 (AMEX: SDD)
UltraShort Russell2000 (AMEX: TWM)
UltraShort MSCI EAFE (AMEX: EFU)
UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (AMEX: FXP)… short selling FTSE Xinhua 25 index (FXI).
UltraShort Basic Materials (AMEX: SMN)
UltraShort Consumer Goods (AMEX: SZK)
UltraShort Consumer Services (AMEX: SCC)
UltraShort Financials (AMEX: SKF)
UltraShort Health Care (AMEX: RXD)
UltraShort Industrials (AMEX: SIJ)
UltraShort Oil & Gas (AMEX: DUG)
UltraShort Real Estate (AMEX: SRS)
UltraShort Semiconductors (AMEX: SSG)
UltraShort Technology (AMEX: REW)
UltraShort Utilities (AMEX: SDP)
Short MSCI Emerging Markets (AMEX:EUM)
Short MSCI EAFE (AMEX: EFZ)
Short QQQ (AMEX: PSQ)
Short Dow30 (AMEX: DOG)
Short S&P500 (AMEX: SH)
Short MidCap400 (AMEX: MYY)
Short SmallCap600 (AMEX: SBB)
Short Russell2000 (AMEX: RWM)
On the TSX in Canada, Horizons BetaPro Funds have launched ‘double-short’ ETFs that trade inversely with the market (they also have corresponding ‘double-bull’ versions of these). Canadian investors and traders can use these to protect against downturns or simply bet against the market.
Horizons BetaPro COMEX® Gold Bullion Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HBD]
Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Global Mining® Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HMD]
Horizons BetaPro DJ-AIGSM Agricultural Grains Bear Plus [TSX: ETF HAD]
Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX 60® Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HXD]
Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Capped Financials® Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HFD]
Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Capped Energy® Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HED]
Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Global Gold® Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HGD]
Horizons BetaPro NYMEX® Natural Gas Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HND]
Horizons BetaPro NYMEX® Crude Oil Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HOD]
Horizons BetaPro COMEX® Gold Bullion Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HBD]
Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Global Mining® Bear Plus ETF [TSX: HMD]
Look at it this way; if you already have long positions that have appreciated, but you’ve got a longer term holding period in mind that is not determined by market conditions, this may a viable option to capture some of the potential downside.
Disclosure: none
Saturday, January 26, 2008
PSP and telechart
发信人: psp (I love psp), 信区: Stock
标 题: top to down method
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jan 26 19:15:40 2008)
big market -> sectors -> groups -> stock
for example, QQQQ is in up trend, then scan which sector is the strongest, metal,then scan which group is the strongest, iron&steelthen scan which stock is the strongest, stld
telechart has an unique own indexes for all sector/group.
--※ 修改:·psp 於 Jan 26 19:32:01 2008 修改本文·[FROM: 68.228.]
发信人: psp (I love psp), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: top to down method
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jan 26 19:33:15 2008)
use the data from telechart, for example, symbol MG130 is metal/mining, MG131 is steel&iron
在 goodbug (好虫) 的大作中提到: 】: Thanks, how do you analyze sector and group? Use ETF?
标 题: top to down method
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jan 26 19:15:40 2008)
big market -> sectors -> groups -> stock
for example, QQQQ is in up trend, then scan which sector is the strongest, metal,then scan which group is the strongest, iron&steelthen scan which stock is the strongest, stld
telechart has an unique own indexes for all sector/group.
--※ 修改:·psp 於 Jan 26 19:32:01 2008 修改本文·[FROM: 68.228.]
发信人: psp (I love psp), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: top to down method
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jan 26 19:33:15 2008)
use the data from telechart, for example, symbol MG130 is metal/mining, MG131 is steel&iron
在 goodbug (好虫) 的大作中提到: 】: Thanks, how do you analyze sector and group? Use ETF?
Thursday, January 24, 2008
止损的纪律和Trailing Stop移动止损
发信人: Bricassart (Superman),
信区: Stock标 题: 止损的纪律和Trailing Stop移动止损---
ZT发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 24 12:45:34 2008)
一位哲人说过：“生活中没有对与错，只有真和假”。在股市交易中，我们不可能每次都看得准确，总有失误的时候，而止损的纪律就变得非常重要。这个止损的道理谁都懂，只是说起来容易做起来难。一个成功的投资者必须能够真实地面对自己、面对现实，坦然地接受失败，不逃避、不幻想。要知道，如果总是不止损的话，本钱很快就会亏掉，到那时就什么技巧和信号也谈不上了。如果你发现自己反复多次都不能及时止损，每次都不知所措、下不了手，那就需要在进场交易的同时，同步设下止损单（最好是Trailing Stop移动止损），让证券交易所的电脑系统“替你”平仓退场。即便在平仓之后，市场很快又恢复原来的走势，你也无需后悔，看准信号之后再重新进场也不迟。因为只要留得青山在，就有的是机会让你从头再来。巴菲特有一句名言：Rule No.1: Never Lose Money. Rule No.2: Never Forget Rule No.1。很多人的失败都不是因为信号错了或者判断错了，而是不能真实地面对一时的失误，不能及时止损，最后变得深陷困境、难以自拔。如果你发现自己真的无法控制情绪，犹豫不决，舍不得下手，请把这项任务交给电脑来自动完成。你很可能最终发现，电脑其实比人类更“聪明”……
It's about being smart, not rightBeing wrong doesn't have to mean losses
By Tomi Kilgore, MarketWatch.com, June 2, 2003
Charts continue to warn of a pullback, as a number of technical indicators have reached overbought extremes. The U.S. dollar has recently hit a record low versus the euro. Economic uncertainty and deflation fears have sent long-term interest rates tumbling to five-decade lows.
Most of the time, stocks would at least take probably take a breather amid all those headwinds.
But prices keep going up.
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX: news, chart, profile) closed Friday up 1.5 percent at 963.59, and has rallied 18 percent since the end of September 2002.
If it can stay above 848.18 through the end of June, the benchmark index will have posted gains for three consecutive quarters for the first time since the fourth quarter of 1998, and the first and second quarters of 1999 -- the good ol' days.
You can't control or predict what will happen with the market on any given day or quarter, as unforeseen fundamental factors can pop up without notice.And even if you can predict the fundamentals, the market won't necessarily follow them. Just ask your mutual fund manager (See below).
The only time you really need to do your homework is when you put on a position. Because once you do, the rest is about money management. It's about making good, sound decisions that help you preserve capital during whatever possible scenario you can think of.
It's all about profits
Just because you think the market may go down doesn't mean you can't keep making money if you're "wrong," and the market goes up.
"Technically speaking there are many reasons -- overbought conditions, too much optimistic sentiment, intermarket problems, etc. -- to expect a normal pause," said Ralph Acampora, technical analyst from Prudential.
Lowry Research's Richard Dickson concurred, saying the market was "extremelyvulnerable" to selling pressure, and will likely suffer a near term pullback. He noted, however, that the negative signals he sees tend to be short-term in nature, and so any pullback is likely to be "relatively moderate."
Acampora also pointed out that the stock market's internal indicators, primarily overall breadth, continue to point higher despite the negative technical backdrop.
"Whenever we encountered this dilemma," Acampora said, "we always fall back on the old adage: 'Never fight the tape.'"
As all of the most seasoned veterans know, it's not about being right or wrong, it's about making money.
Let MOST of it ride!
One of the most important Wall Street axioms, right alongside "The trend is your friend," is: "Cut your losses short, and let your profits ride."
There are a number of different possible outcomes when you enter a trade: 1)a large profit; 2) a small profit; 3) breakeven; 4) a small loss; and 5) a large loss.
The idea is that if you cut out the large losses, small profits, breakeven and small losses will cancel each other out, and you'll be left with large profits.
Of course, that's easier said than done. Emotions such as greed, fear and pride always get in the way, and profits are taken too early, and losses areleft to widen.
It's takes a lot of discipline, and the lack of hindsight, to make it work.
As much as I'd like to believe that when I took money out of the market it had something to do with how smart I was, it probably had much more to do with how careful (or boring) I was.
There are a number of different scenarios that could work for each situation. For example, if you think the market may go down based just on how far it's gone and how fast, just remember there are investors out there that may bejust as afraid to miss out on potential gains.
Unless the market actually acts on these fears to some degree, take a deep breath and resist the urge. A good idea is to set a stop loss on some of your position -- the operating word being "some" -- at some arbitrary lower level, such as at the low of the last down day.
You can then continue to raise the stop if the market keeps climbing. Even if the amount of the stop is small relative to the size of the overall position, this symbolic gesture can relieve enough stress to allow you to think clearly when a "normal" pullback occurs.
Or if you see a bunch of actual caution signs but the market keeps going, take "some" profits anyway. If you stop acting on the signals that you've found to work most of the time, it can cost you dearly when "normal" tradingconditions return.
If you are "wrong," you are still involved and can always re-establish your full position. If you are "right," and the market starts to decline further,you can continue to close out pieces of your position until you're satisfied with your exposure to risk.
It's also not a bad idea to lighten up after the market runs even if you arestill bullish, so you're not handcuffed if the market does pullback. If you're "right," you can always buy back the portion you sold when the market starts to run again. You sacrifice a small percentage gain for an opportunity to profit from a short-term decline.
So forget about being right or wrong, just try to play it smart.
--------------------------斗酒十千，与尔同销万古愁。
※ 来源:·WWW 未名空间站 海外: mitbbs.com 中国: mitbbs.cn·[FROM: 68.42.]
信区: Stock标 题: 止损的纪律和Trailing Stop移动止损---
ZT发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 24 12:45:34 2008)
一位哲人说过：“生活中没有对与错，只有真和假”。在股市交易中，我们不可能每次都看得准确，总有失误的时候，而止损的纪律就变得非常重要。这个止损的道理谁都懂，只是说起来容易做起来难。一个成功的投资者必须能够真实地面对自己、面对现实，坦然地接受失败，不逃避、不幻想。要知道，如果总是不止损的话，本钱很快就会亏掉，到那时就什么技巧和信号也谈不上了。如果你发现自己反复多次都不能及时止损，每次都不知所措、下不了手，那就需要在进场交易的同时，同步设下止损单（最好是Trailing Stop移动止损），让证券交易所的电脑系统“替你”平仓退场。即便在平仓之后，市场很快又恢复原来的走势，你也无需后悔，看准信号之后再重新进场也不迟。因为只要留得青山在，就有的是机会让你从头再来。巴菲特有一句名言：Rule No.1: Never Lose Money. Rule No.2: Never Forget Rule No.1。很多人的失败都不是因为信号错了或者判断错了，而是不能真实地面对一时的失误，不能及时止损，最后变得深陷困境、难以自拔。如果你发现自己真的无法控制情绪，犹豫不决，舍不得下手，请把这项任务交给电脑来自动完成。你很可能最终发现，电脑其实比人类更“聪明”……
It's about being smart, not rightBeing wrong doesn't have to mean losses
By Tomi Kilgore, MarketWatch.com, June 2, 2003
Charts continue to warn of a pullback, as a number of technical indicators have reached overbought extremes. The U.S. dollar has recently hit a record low versus the euro. Economic uncertainty and deflation fears have sent long-term interest rates tumbling to five-decade lows.
Most of the time, stocks would at least take probably take a breather amid all those headwinds.
But prices keep going up.
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX: news, chart, profile) closed Friday up 1.5 percent at 963.59, and has rallied 18 percent since the end of September 2002.
If it can stay above 848.18 through the end of June, the benchmark index will have posted gains for three consecutive quarters for the first time since the fourth quarter of 1998, and the first and second quarters of 1999 -- the good ol' days.
You can't control or predict what will happen with the market on any given day or quarter, as unforeseen fundamental factors can pop up without notice.And even if you can predict the fundamentals, the market won't necessarily follow them. Just ask your mutual fund manager (See below).
The only time you really need to do your homework is when you put on a position. Because once you do, the rest is about money management. It's about making good, sound decisions that help you preserve capital during whatever possible scenario you can think of.
It's all about profits
Just because you think the market may go down doesn't mean you can't keep making money if you're "wrong," and the market goes up.
"Technically speaking there are many reasons -- overbought conditions, too much optimistic sentiment, intermarket problems, etc. -- to expect a normal pause," said Ralph Acampora, technical analyst from Prudential.
Lowry Research's Richard Dickson concurred, saying the market was "extremelyvulnerable" to selling pressure, and will likely suffer a near term pullback. He noted, however, that the negative signals he sees tend to be short-term in nature, and so any pullback is likely to be "relatively moderate."
Acampora also pointed out that the stock market's internal indicators, primarily overall breadth, continue to point higher despite the negative technical backdrop.
"Whenever we encountered this dilemma," Acampora said, "we always fall back on the old adage: 'Never fight the tape.'"
As all of the most seasoned veterans know, it's not about being right or wrong, it's about making money.
Let MOST of it ride!
One of the most important Wall Street axioms, right alongside "The trend is your friend," is: "Cut your losses short, and let your profits ride."
There are a number of different possible outcomes when you enter a trade: 1)a large profit; 2) a small profit; 3) breakeven; 4) a small loss; and 5) a large loss.
The idea is that if you cut out the large losses, small profits, breakeven and small losses will cancel each other out, and you'll be left with large profits.
Of course, that's easier said than done. Emotions such as greed, fear and pride always get in the way, and profits are taken too early, and losses areleft to widen.
It's takes a lot of discipline, and the lack of hindsight, to make it work.
As much as I'd like to believe that when I took money out of the market it had something to do with how smart I was, it probably had much more to do with how careful (or boring) I was.
There are a number of different scenarios that could work for each situation. For example, if you think the market may go down based just on how far it's gone and how fast, just remember there are investors out there that may bejust as afraid to miss out on potential gains.
Unless the market actually acts on these fears to some degree, take a deep breath and resist the urge. A good idea is to set a stop loss on some of your position -- the operating word being "some" -- at some arbitrary lower level, such as at the low of the last down day.
You can then continue to raise the stop if the market keeps climbing. Even if the amount of the stop is small relative to the size of the overall position, this symbolic gesture can relieve enough stress to allow you to think clearly when a "normal" pullback occurs.
Or if you see a bunch of actual caution signs but the market keeps going, take "some" profits anyway. If you stop acting on the signals that you've found to work most of the time, it can cost you dearly when "normal" tradingconditions return.
If you are "wrong," you are still involved and can always re-establish your full position. If you are "right," and the market starts to decline further,you can continue to close out pieces of your position until you're satisfied with your exposure to risk.
It's also not a bad idea to lighten up after the market runs even if you arestill bullish, so you're not handcuffed if the market does pullback. If you're "right," you can always buy back the portion you sold when the market starts to run again. You sacrifice a small percentage gain for an opportunity to profit from a short-term decline.
So forget about being right or wrong, just try to play it smart.
--------------------------斗酒十千，与尔同销万古愁。
※ 来源:·WWW 未名空间站 海外: mitbbs.com 中国: mitbbs.cn·[FROM: 68.42.]
Sunday, January 20, 2008
poker和trading的10个相同之处
发信人: lovingmao (乍暖还寒),
信区: Stock
标 题: poker和trading的10个相同之处
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jan 19 23:25:30 2008)
1）两个都是概率的游戏。在进入一个交易或者打一手牌的时候，永远没有一定输或者一定赢。玩的都是几率。
2）两个都要求纪律性。当知道处于不利的位置的时候，应该主动放弃，而不是傻傻的坚持。
3）两个都要求耐心。poker需要等喜欢的牌。trading需要等进入市场的机会。4）两个游戏都要求游戏的人观察游戏的pattern. poker player要看别人bet的思路方法。trader要在纷繁复杂的交易中寻求蛛丝马迹，判断市场走向。
5）两个都需要player be cool. poker player 要在被bad beat, suck out 的时候保持冷静; trader要在交易不顺利的时候头脑清醒。
6）两个都需要反其道而行之。在aggressive的桌上play poker要保守。在保守的桌上aggressive. 市场交易也是一样。疯狂的市场不应该疯狂的交易。稳定的市场反而应该交易频繁。
7）两个都是少数人的游戏，大多数人都是羊牯，送钱神仙，赢得永远是少数人。8）关于两个游戏的书很多，书上说的都是正确的策略。然而能够活学活用掌握策略的人很少。
9）喜欢交易的人往往喜欢poker,喜欢poker的人往往也喜欢交易。
10）无论今天多么惨，对于poker player和trader来说，明天都是新的开始。我们不留恋过去。舔舔伤口，重新启航。
信区: Stock
标 题: poker和trading的10个相同之处
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jan 19 23:25:30 2008)
1）两个都是概率的游戏。在进入一个交易或者打一手牌的时候，永远没有一定输或者一定赢。玩的都是几率。
2）两个都要求纪律性。当知道处于不利的位置的时候，应该主动放弃，而不是傻傻的坚持。
3）两个都要求耐心。poker需要等喜欢的牌。trading需要等进入市场的机会。4）两个游戏都要求游戏的人观察游戏的pattern. poker player要看别人bet的思路方法。trader要在纷繁复杂的交易中寻求蛛丝马迹，判断市场走向。
5）两个都需要player be cool. poker player 要在被bad beat, suck out 的时候保持冷静; trader要在交易不顺利的时候头脑清醒。
6）两个都需要反其道而行之。在aggressive的桌上play poker要保守。在保守的桌上aggressive. 市场交易也是一样。疯狂的市场不应该疯狂的交易。稳定的市场反而应该交易频繁。
7）两个都是少数人的游戏，大多数人都是羊牯，送钱神仙，赢得永远是少数人。8）关于两个游戏的书很多，书上说的都是正确的策略。然而能够活学活用掌握策略的人很少。
9）喜欢交易的人往往喜欢poker,喜欢poker的人往往也喜欢交易。
10）无论今天多么惨，对于poker player和trader来说，明天都是新的开始。我们不留恋过去。舔舔伤口，重新启航。
发信人: cuguys (小眼睛),
信区: Stock
标 题: zt：Profitable Strategy for Struggling Traders
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jan 19 15:32:34 2008)
The intention of this post is to help struggling traders turn their trading around. It's my way of paying it forward and contributing to a board that consistently complaints about the lack of useful trading information.
The strategy works in most trending markets but with your help we can make agreat thing even better. It is by no means complete but very much functional and consistently profitable once some of the trader's skills are polished.
It's simply a collection of ideas, personal experience, trial and errors, backtesting and things I put together that changed my trading around over the years.
I'm open to suggestions and ideas on how to improve what I consider a very good system for daytrading the market. Particularly, the e-minis.
Let's try to keep it civil and friendly as my priority here is simply to help and improve the system. It's long overdo that I do some contributions and well, tonight is the night.
Hope it helps and since I designed it I will indulge myself by calling it, for now...
Anek's Holy Grail v 1.0 or AHG for short. As we improve it we can increase the version number. Rest assure, it's a good working strategy for trading and has been my bread and butter for quite some time. I see no reason for this changing.
Help me help you and feel free to help us help more by chipping in with ideas.
I shall begin by placing the first stone......
STEP 1 THE TREND
- Determine if there is a MEANINGFUL TREND present
There are two types.
The meaningful ones:
Downtrend = lower highs, lower lowsUptrend = higher highs, higher lows
The ones you should ignore (for now) because they require greaterskill to consistently profit from orsimply, the sideway ones:
Congestion/Indecision = higher lows, lower highs (Symmetric Triangleformations)Consolidation = horizontal lows/highs
As you get more experienced you can profit off consolidation by fadingsupport/resistance but for now, stick only tothe meaningful trends.
Again, as you get more experienced you can profit off symmetrictriangles (HL LH) because they tend to give birthto POWERFUL new trends but for now I would rather you stick to themeaningful trends.
STEP 2 ONCE A TREND HAS BEEN DETERMINED HOW DO WE PLAY IT
- If a MEANINGFUL TREND has been found we need a logical entry.
Let's start with the UPTREND.
We BUY a pullback and we are nimble with our target.
Where exactly ? Well, it can be a 50% Fib retracement from the recentHigh to Low swing, or stochastics crossing, whatever you feelcomfortable with. We take advantage of minor WEAKNESS in a STRONGTREND to get a good fill.
What's your target ? It can be a few ticks below previous resistance,it can be an upper bollinger band. This is entirely up to youand only in time you will master this. You could trail the stop toride those breakouts, all very discretionary.
Stop ? Whatever would make it a lower low aka a CHANGE of trend.
Now, lets talk about the evil twin, the DOWNTREND.
We SHORT a pop up and again, we are nimble with our target.
Where exactly ? Well, it can be a 50% Fib retracement from High toLow, Stochastics Crossing, whatever you feelcomfortable with. We take advantage of STRENGTH in a WEAK TREND toget a good fill.
What's your target ? It can be a few ticks above previous support, itcan be a lower bollinger band. This is entirely up to youand only in time you will master this. You could trail the stop toride those breakdowns, all very discretionary.
Stop ? Whatever would make it a higher high aka a CHANGE of trend.
Important, we never go against the trend. When the trend is strong webuy a pullback. When the trend is weak we short a pop up.No exceptions, don't play hero or Nostradamus. There is not a soul onearth who can predict the market consistently and what we want is consistency, so be smart about this.
If STOPPED OUT, meaning, a CHANGE of a trend, we stay ON THE SIDELINESuntil a NEW MEANINGFUL TREND is defined and we take our stoplike responsible traders. If we get faked out, so be it, plan yourtrade and trade your plan. Losses are inevitable and quitealright as long as we limit them to small numbers.
Who is our enemy ? You got it, REVERSALS. REVERSALS stop us out.Lucky for us, they are not very common which is exactly why thisstrategy works. Some days will be filled with them and sadly I don'tknow how to overcome this. On days like this, I lose money.
Surprisingly so, people call reversals all the time then you wonderwhy 90% of traders lose money ? We never call a top, we nevercall a bottom, we never say "Oh it's too high" or "It's too low", themarket has no boundaries. Yes, you heard that right, NO BOUNDARIES.There are so many variables in the market it is IMPOSSIBLE to predictaccurately on a consistently basis therefore the best I can do isexamine what is happening NOW and try to profit from some possiblevolatility and situate myself in a strategic place, with patienceand conviction.
STEP 3 INDICATORS
I'm not a big fan of technical indicators, mostly because I have nointerest in using something that tells me what happened 10 years ago.Price action is all I need and when using tick/share charts I don'tneed to use a volume indicator.
However, there are some I use for strength/weakness references,entries and exits.
For example:
BOLLINGER BANDS with 2.5 Standard Deviation. (I feel 2.0 gets hit fartoo often and distracts me with noise)
When price is continuously hitting a band, pay attention. It's tryingto tell you which side is stronger. If you are having difficultyidentifying the current trend or suspect a reversal, the constanthitting of a particular band can provide great info as to wheremomentum is headed.
TRENDLINES, as many as you need to determine the current trend.
STOCHASTICS, a cross can be a powerful tool when you are looking foran entry in a strong trend. I like 5,3,3 but use whatever you feelcomfortable with.
FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LINES, my favorite. 50% from last swinglow/high and you got an excellent entry point. Problem is sometimes thetrend is so strong it won't even give you your wish and you miss the fill.
STEP 4 MONEY MANAGEMENT
As you get more experienced, I highly recommend you use an average upapproach. More on this later, until then, use the same car sizeon every play and for God's sake DO NOT AVERAGE DOWN unless you arejust trying to get fills for your intended car size, neversurpassing it. I previously stated and those that known me for awhile know I advocate averaging up. I feel this is an advanced moneymanagement technique and for now I am not disccusing it to avoidconfusion/mistakes.
STEP 5 DISCIPLINE
I'll be blunt. Trading is not for the irresponsible. Break the rulesand you will eventually lose big, period. Trading will forgiveyou if you were wrong on a play even several ones, it won't forgive or tolerateidiocy and stupidity. All I need to say on this and you have beenwarned.
STEP 6 CHART TYPES
Longbars are evil, therefore I highly recommend tick/share charts soyou can split that data and examine it with care. For the YMI recommend 75 or 89 tick charts. This differs greatly from oneinstrument to the other, the more volume/activity it has the greaterthe ticks size you will need. Use what you feel comfortable with.
信区: Stock
标 题: zt：Profitable Strategy for Struggling Traders
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jan 19 15:32:34 2008)
The intention of this post is to help struggling traders turn their trading around. It's my way of paying it forward and contributing to a board that consistently complaints about the lack of useful trading information.
The strategy works in most trending markets but with your help we can make agreat thing even better. It is by no means complete but very much functional and consistently profitable once some of the trader's skills are polished.
It's simply a collection of ideas, personal experience, trial and errors, backtesting and things I put together that changed my trading around over the years.
I'm open to suggestions and ideas on how to improve what I consider a very good system for daytrading the market. Particularly, the e-minis.
Let's try to keep it civil and friendly as my priority here is simply to help and improve the system. It's long overdo that I do some contributions and well, tonight is the night.
Hope it helps and since I designed it I will indulge myself by calling it, for now...
Anek's Holy Grail v 1.0 or AHG for short. As we improve it we can increase the version number. Rest assure, it's a good working strategy for trading and has been my bread and butter for quite some time. I see no reason for this changing.
Help me help you and feel free to help us help more by chipping in with ideas.
I shall begin by placing the first stone......
STEP 1 THE TREND
- Determine if there is a MEANINGFUL TREND present
There are two types.
The meaningful ones:
Downtrend = lower highs, lower lowsUptrend = higher highs, higher lows
The ones you should ignore (for now) because they require greaterskill to consistently profit from orsimply, the sideway ones:
Congestion/Indecision = higher lows, lower highs (Symmetric Triangleformations)Consolidation = horizontal lows/highs
As you get more experienced you can profit off consolidation by fadingsupport/resistance but for now, stick only tothe meaningful trends.
Again, as you get more experienced you can profit off symmetrictriangles (HL LH) because they tend to give birthto POWERFUL new trends but for now I would rather you stick to themeaningful trends.
STEP 2 ONCE A TREND HAS BEEN DETERMINED HOW DO WE PLAY IT
- If a MEANINGFUL TREND has been found we need a logical entry.
Let's start with the UPTREND.
We BUY a pullback and we are nimble with our target.
Where exactly ? Well, it can be a 50% Fib retracement from the recentHigh to Low swing, or stochastics crossing, whatever you feelcomfortable with. We take advantage of minor WEAKNESS in a STRONGTREND to get a good fill.
What's your target ? It can be a few ticks below previous resistance,it can be an upper bollinger band. This is entirely up to youand only in time you will master this. You could trail the stop toride those breakouts, all very discretionary.
Stop ? Whatever would make it a lower low aka a CHANGE of trend.
Now, lets talk about the evil twin, the DOWNTREND.
We SHORT a pop up and again, we are nimble with our target.
Where exactly ? Well, it can be a 50% Fib retracement from High toLow, Stochastics Crossing, whatever you feelcomfortable with. We take advantage of STRENGTH in a WEAK TREND toget a good fill.
What's your target ? It can be a few ticks above previous support, itcan be a lower bollinger band. This is entirely up to youand only in time you will master this. You could trail the stop toride those breakdowns, all very discretionary.
Stop ? Whatever would make it a higher high aka a CHANGE of trend.
Important, we never go against the trend. When the trend is strong webuy a pullback. When the trend is weak we short a pop up.No exceptions, don't play hero or Nostradamus. There is not a soul onearth who can predict the market consistently and what we want is consistency, so be smart about this.
If STOPPED OUT, meaning, a CHANGE of a trend, we stay ON THE SIDELINESuntil a NEW MEANINGFUL TREND is defined and we take our stoplike responsible traders. If we get faked out, so be it, plan yourtrade and trade your plan. Losses are inevitable and quitealright as long as we limit them to small numbers.
Who is our enemy ? You got it, REVERSALS. REVERSALS stop us out.Lucky for us, they are not very common which is exactly why thisstrategy works. Some days will be filled with them and sadly I don'tknow how to overcome this. On days like this, I lose money.
Surprisingly so, people call reversals all the time then you wonderwhy 90% of traders lose money ? We never call a top, we nevercall a bottom, we never say "Oh it's too high" or "It's too low", themarket has no boundaries. Yes, you heard that right, NO BOUNDARIES.There are so many variables in the market it is IMPOSSIBLE to predictaccurately on a consistently basis therefore the best I can do isexamine what is happening NOW and try to profit from some possiblevolatility and situate myself in a strategic place, with patienceand conviction.
STEP 3 INDICATORS
I'm not a big fan of technical indicators, mostly because I have nointerest in using something that tells me what happened 10 years ago.Price action is all I need and when using tick/share charts I don'tneed to use a volume indicator.
However, there are some I use for strength/weakness references,entries and exits.
For example:
BOLLINGER BANDS with 2.5 Standard Deviation. (I feel 2.0 gets hit fartoo often and distracts me with noise)
When price is continuously hitting a band, pay attention. It's tryingto tell you which side is stronger. If you are having difficultyidentifying the current trend or suspect a reversal, the constanthitting of a particular band can provide great info as to wheremomentum is headed.
TRENDLINES, as many as you need to determine the current trend.
STOCHASTICS, a cross can be a powerful tool when you are looking foran entry in a strong trend. I like 5,3,3 but use whatever you feelcomfortable with.
FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LINES, my favorite. 50% from last swinglow/high and you got an excellent entry point. Problem is sometimes thetrend is so strong it won't even give you your wish and you miss the fill.
STEP 4 MONEY MANAGEMENT
As you get more experienced, I highly recommend you use an average upapproach. More on this later, until then, use the same car sizeon every play and for God's sake DO NOT AVERAGE DOWN unless you arejust trying to get fills for your intended car size, neversurpassing it. I previously stated and those that known me for awhile know I advocate averaging up. I feel this is an advanced moneymanagement technique and for now I am not disccusing it to avoidconfusion/mistakes.
STEP 5 DISCIPLINE
I'll be blunt. Trading is not for the irresponsible. Break the rulesand you will eventually lose big, period. Trading will forgiveyou if you were wrong on a play even several ones, it won't forgive or tolerateidiocy and stupidity. All I need to say on this and you have beenwarned.
STEP 6 CHART TYPES
Longbars are evil, therefore I highly recommend tick/share charts soyou can split that data and examine it with care. For the YMI recommend 75 or 89 tick charts. This differs greatly from oneinstrument to the other, the more volume/activity it has the greaterthe ticks size you will need. Use what you feel comfortable with.
Friday, January 18, 2008
VIX
发信人: greedypig (发财猪),
信区: Stock标 题: Re: volatility smile
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 18 09:11:44 2008)
VIX high means bearish market. IV > HV means overpriced option and vice versa. All this means nothing if you don't know market direction. If you know something nobody knows then you have an edge, otherwise it's already calculated in the option price. For example if today you buy call you'll paypremium since all pre-market priceare already up (so option price gets auto adjusted), by next week you might not even break even when the market is dropping again (just a speculation).
发信人: greedypig (发财猪),
信区: Stock标 题: Re: volatility smile
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 18 09:23:50 2008)
It's way too complicated to explain it here (maybe another time). You can try this calculator. It's pretty accurate except the data is delayed abit but you can cross reference with morningstar.com (you get all the greeks andIV beside everything else like yahoo's option data) option data it's close
http://www.ivolatility.com/calc/?ticker=aaplhttp://www.morningstar.com/Cover/Options.aspx
Actually yahoo has an option scanner but it returns pretty depressing resultwhen I tried last night. It give you risk, probability of winning, odds, etc.
http://yahoo.optionetics.com/yhmain.htm
Have fun scanning;)
信区: Stock标 题: Re: volatility smile
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 18 09:11:44 2008)
VIX high means bearish market. IV > HV means overpriced option and vice versa. All this means nothing if you don't know market direction. If you know something nobody knows then you have an edge, otherwise it's already calculated in the option price. For example if today you buy call you'll paypremium since all pre-market priceare already up (so option price gets auto adjusted), by next week you might not even break even when the market is dropping again (just a speculation).
发信人: greedypig (发财猪),
信区: Stock标 题: Re: volatility smile
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 18 09:23:50 2008)
It's way too complicated to explain it here (maybe another time). You can try this calculator. It's pretty accurate except the data is delayed abit but you can cross reference with morningstar.com (you get all the greeks andIV beside everything else like yahoo's option data) option data it's close
http://www.ivolatility.com/calc/?ticker=aaplhttp://www.morningstar.com/Cover/Options.aspx
Actually yahoo has an option scanner but it returns pretty depressing resultwhen I tried last night. It give you risk, probability of winning, odds, etc.
http://yahoo.optionetics.com/yhmain.htm
Have fun scanning;)
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Paper trade
发信人: pinball (pinball), 信区: Stock
标 题: 推荐motley fool的caps rating
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 16 19:00:33 2008)
caps.fool.com纸交网站，鼓励较长期的trade，open position 7天后才能close。
玩下来感觉不错，对timing，target price的掌握都有所帮助而且可以总结自己的pick的特征，以获得改进。
另外，top players的pick，portfolio和他们的当日表现，都有很好的参考价值。
比如今天，top 40 players里面90%分数大降，这里面30%是熊，还有70%基本是market neutral的portfolio(about 50% long and 50% short)或者bias不明显的。他们的分数普降，说明优质的股票（包括了大盘和小盘股）没涨，而普遍不受欢迎的垃圾股涨的欢，比如金融，地产。
推论一：今天不像真正的强力反转，因为优质股表现欠佳。推论二：垃圾股翻飞是什么信号？昨天和今天rut表现优于大盘，说明离底部很近了？望高手能够解答。--
标 题: 推荐motley fool的caps rating
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 16 19:00:33 2008)
caps.fool.com纸交网站，鼓励较长期的trade，open position 7天后才能close。
玩下来感觉不错，对timing，target price的掌握都有所帮助而且可以总结自己的pick的特征，以获得改进。
另外，top players的pick，portfolio和他们的当日表现，都有很好的参考价值。
比如今天，top 40 players里面90%分数大降，这里面30%是熊，还有70%基本是market neutral的portfolio(about 50% long and 50% short)或者bias不明显的。他们的分数普降，说明优质的股票（包括了大盘和小盘股）没涨，而普遍不受欢迎的垃圾股涨的欢，比如金融，地产。
推论一：今天不像真正的强力反转，因为优质股表现欠佳。推论二：垃圾股翻飞是什么信号？昨天和今天rut表现优于大盘，说明离底部很近了？望高手能够解答。--
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
WHAT A DAY!
IBM's ER was apparently bull trap yesterday. C and MER are big players this week, should already put the leading names.
Index red, leading names green, market is OK.
Index red, leading names red, you know the market.
Defense always wins the game!
Frog's biggest enemy!
Fear? or Greedy?
You bet!
Cold blood, follow the trend, keep your discipline, you will be the winner!
Emotion must must must go away in trading!
Index red, leading names green, market is OK.
Index red, leading names red, you know the market.
Defense always wins the game!
Frog's biggest enemy!
Fear? or Greedy?
You bet!
Cold blood, follow the trend, keep your discipline, you will be the winner!
Emotion must must must go away in trading!
Monday, January 14, 2008
发信人: eric717 (eric),
信区: Stock标 题: Add New XLF, MOO and GLD Positions
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 14 23:11:48 2008)
Add some Jan30 2009 XLF calls today. Financial sector may not bottom out completely yet but the price is attractive enough for me. I am also bullish on agricultural sector, and don't want to bet on a specific stock. Bought both August calls and stock on MOO. Picked up some GLD for short term play. Rate cuts should help boost gold price. Add another 100 contracts on AAPL Feb 200 at 5 last Friday for a short term play.
信区: Stock标 题: Add New XLF, MOO and GLD Positions
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 14 23:11:48 2008)
Add some Jan30 2009 XLF calls today. Financial sector may not bottom out completely yet but the price is attractive enough for me. I am also bullish on agricultural sector, and don't want to bet on a specific stock. Bought both August calls and stock on MOO. Picked up some GLD for short term play. Rate cuts should help boost gold price. Add another 100 contracts on AAPL Feb 200 at 5 last Friday for a short term play.
西瓜的一点option操作总结.
发信人: nkmelon (胖胖的西瓜), 信区: Stock
标 题: 西瓜的一点option操作总结.
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 14 19:36:10 2008)
最近不少朋友给我写信,问买option的技巧. 这里给大家总结一下我的option操作技巧.希望抛砖引玉.
如果说买股票买的是公司的未来,那么买option就是一个心理战!把握好这个心理上的surprise, 是赚钱的关键.
1. 什么时间买入option?
买入option要在突变前夕. 如果讲数学,就是导数要发生变化前!最好的时间是反转,只有这样才能造成心理上的surprise.(当然对于操作者来说,是under expected了). 很简单,你觉得股票跌的差不多了要反转或者反弹了,买call. 涨的差不多了买put. 这个时候买入收益损失比比较大. 即使再跌一点点,只要导数变化不大,也就是说不是加速下跌, 不会损失太多.但是如果反转. 那收益很多. 远的不提,最近几次俺贴出的几次操作,GRMN的put从110到90, AAPL从181到200, BIDU的put, QQQQ call都是这样. 还有一种是抓突破,就是上升变加速上升买call, 下降变加速下降买put. 这个比较难. 下面再说说什么时候买call不容易赚到钱, 就是你发现股票已经开始涨了,涨了不少,这个时候买入leap call什么的基本赚不到什么钱.因为涨不是surprise的了.要是涨的变缓了或者反转了,那就亏大了.
2. 什么时候卖option?
跟上面那个反着想就可以了. 比如要卖call, 你觉得要反转,还没反转的时候.或者觉得上升斜率变小的时候.
3. 买多少钱的?这个简单,容易把握, 如果你觉得股票这波能涨到50,那就买50的call. 收益最大.
4. 买什么时候OE的?如果觉得把握特大,那就买下次的. 我一般买隔月的. 注意一个事情. 很多option不是马上有隔月的,比如现在有1月份的,3月份的,没2月份的. 当一月份OE时候,他们写2月份的. 这个时候3月份call会贬值.
5. 买什么股票的option?不要不是热门股票的option,除非十分十分有把握. 因为这种option往往bid跟ask差别很大.一进一出就损失不少钱了.
还有一个注意的是玩option见好就收, 只吃一波! 比如这波从50涨到55,option从2块钱,涨到了4块, 股票又从55跌倒52,然后又涨到55. 你发现这个时候你的option只值2.5了. 即便发生在一天,也会出现很大的贬值. 因为很多人预期它还会振荡,而不是勇往直前了.
总结一句,就是把握大众心理, 抓住surprise的点.
希望写的对大家有点小用, 更希望引来大牛讨论.最后祝大家财源滚滚.
看着好的顶一把.
标 题: 西瓜的一点option操作总结.
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 14 19:36:10 2008)
最近不少朋友给我写信,问买option的技巧. 这里给大家总结一下我的option操作技巧.希望抛砖引玉.
如果说买股票买的是公司的未来,那么买option就是一个心理战!把握好这个心理上的surprise, 是赚钱的关键.
1. 什么时间买入option?
买入option要在突变前夕. 如果讲数学,就是导数要发生变化前!最好的时间是反转,只有这样才能造成心理上的surprise.(当然对于操作者来说,是under expected了). 很简单,你觉得股票跌的差不多了要反转或者反弹了,买call. 涨的差不多了买put. 这个时候买入收益损失比比较大. 即使再跌一点点,只要导数变化不大,也就是说不是加速下跌, 不会损失太多.但是如果反转. 那收益很多. 远的不提,最近几次俺贴出的几次操作,GRMN的put从110到90, AAPL从181到200, BIDU的put, QQQQ call都是这样. 还有一种是抓突破,就是上升变加速上升买call, 下降变加速下降买put. 这个比较难. 下面再说说什么时候买call不容易赚到钱, 就是你发现股票已经开始涨了,涨了不少,这个时候买入leap call什么的基本赚不到什么钱.因为涨不是surprise的了.要是涨的变缓了或者反转了,那就亏大了.
2. 什么时候卖option?
跟上面那个反着想就可以了. 比如要卖call, 你觉得要反转,还没反转的时候.或者觉得上升斜率变小的时候.
3. 买多少钱的?这个简单,容易把握, 如果你觉得股票这波能涨到50,那就买50的call. 收益最大.
4. 买什么时候OE的?如果觉得把握特大,那就买下次的. 我一般买隔月的. 注意一个事情. 很多option不是马上有隔月的,比如现在有1月份的,3月份的,没2月份的. 当一月份OE时候,他们写2月份的. 这个时候3月份call会贬值.
5. 买什么股票的option?不要不是热门股票的option,除非十分十分有把握. 因为这种option往往bid跟ask差别很大.一进一出就损失不少钱了.
还有一个注意的是玩option见好就收, 只吃一波! 比如这波从50涨到55,option从2块钱,涨到了4块, 股票又从55跌倒52,然后又涨到55. 你发现这个时候你的option只值2.5了. 即便发生在一天,也会出现很大的贬值. 因为很多人预期它还会振荡,而不是勇往直前了.
总结一句,就是把握大众心理, 抓住surprise的点.
希望写的对大家有点小用, 更希望引来大牛讨论.最后祝大家财源滚滚.
看着好的顶一把.
1/15/2008 watchlist
AG
AGU (Stage1 to stage2)
MON
MOS
FCSX (wait pull back, then long)
SOHU
DE(DGVBT, last $3.30, 02/08 call , strike price $100.00)
DE (DGVBA, last $1.80, 02/08 call , strike price $105.00)
ABX wait for pull back
EWZ, MOO, PBW, QQQQ, options
Clean enerzy is already down for half a month, it's a good time to buy future option? 2008 will be a Solar year?
See the trend, wait for PBW option
AGU (Stage1 to stage2)
MON
MOS
FCSX (wait pull back, then long)
SOHU
DE(DGVBT, last $3.30, 02/08 call , strike price $100.00)
DE (DGVBA, last $1.80, 02/08 call , strike price $105.00)
ABX wait for pull back
EWZ, MOO, PBW, QQQQ, options
Clean enerzy is already down for half a month, it's a good time to buy future option? 2008 will be a Solar year?
See the trend, wait for PBW option
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Gold and Solar
发信人: RockStone (本不笨), 信区: Stock
标 题: 黄金和太阳能股票发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 10 13:32:33 2008), 转信
今天又有消息说要降息，这样的话美元还会持续跌，黄金还会相对上涨，下面是黄金相关的股票：
NG, AUY, NEM, TGB, ABX, AEM, HMY, TRE, GG, KGC,GOLD, GLD, RGLD, GSS, HL, IAG
2008年以来，市场认为消费支出会下降，石油消耗会减少，这样最近太阳能股票跌了很多，但长线，还是升势
AKNS, DSTI, LDK, YGE, FSLR, SPWR, STP, CSUN, CSIQ, ASTI, ESLR, SOLF, JASO, TSL
- RockStone
标 题: 黄金和太阳能股票发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 10 13:32:33 2008), 转信
今天又有消息说要降息，这样的话美元还会持续跌，黄金还会相对上涨，下面是黄金相关的股票：
NG, AUY, NEM, TGB, ABX, AEM, HMY, TRE, GG, KGC,GOLD, GLD, RGLD, GSS, HL, IAG
2008年以来，市场认为消费支出会下降，石油消耗会减少，这样最近太阳能股票跌了很多，但长线，还是升势
AKNS, DSTI, LDK, YGE, FSLR, SPWR, STP, CSUN, CSIQ, ASTI, ESLR, SOLF, JASO, TSL
- RockStone
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
我的一个交易日_huaren trader
我的一个正常的交易日是这样的。
交易日从晚上10点以后开始。我在比较晚的时候容易集中注意力，先看看指数的日线图。然后用TC2000选股，有特别感兴趣的股票还会去Yahoo Finance看看新闻和简单的基本面信息。一般会看200-500张图，TC的好处是可以很快看图，也是我几年来一直使用的主要原因。一般在12点左右确定watchlist，再用5-10分钟的时间离开屏幕沉思，决定watchlist的股票顺序。这一步很重要。然后上论坛贴出watchlist. 完成研究，睡觉。
9:00am 开始看股市，先看重要的新闻，再看有那些股票会高开。我以做晚上watchlist上的股票为主，所以对这些股票不是很重视。然后会看watchlist上的股票有没有任何新闻。股票在新高附近经常会有消息，所以时不时就有挺重要的新闻。这一步挺重要的。
9:30am 开盘。开盘后5分钟左右是我的方法的重要进点之一。主要的想法还是抓住强股。不过这时假动作较多，仓位不能太大。
9:45-10:10am 是最重要的进点。opening range breakout (ORB) 通常发生在这一段时间。10点到11点的趋势也比较稳定，可以上正常的仓位，如果开盘后买进的股票在这这里ORB，可以加比较大的仓位。
11:00-11:30am 是结束DT仓位的时间，很多股票在11点左右完成量度涨幅，是出货的好时候。
11:30am-1:00pm 尽量不操作，找时间吃午饭。
1:00-2:30pm 在很适合操作的市场里是另外一个进点。可以追突破的强股争取抓住下午的趋势。这几年的市场不是很强，很少在下午进货。
交易日里我一直会注意已有的仓位，如果跌破13EMA会出货。
3:30-4:00pm 如果持有的股票收在最高点附近，我会持有一部分或全部仓位过夜。如果股票没有涨太多，会出一部分，如果跌的话会出清。我不拿亏损的仓位过夜。
4:00-9:30pm 休息，晚饭，family time.
9:30-10:00pm 总结回顾一天的操作。
在不利于操作的日子里，我只看盘，而且经常只是三心二意的看盘。券商(IB)的网站和软件都不打开。
交易日总的来说是单调和平静的，这有利于我在市场上仔细观察，随机应变。
为什么能耐住这样的寂寞？两个字: 喜欢。股市操作是最刺激好玩的游戏。自己和自己对战，没有比这更富有挑战性的了。每一次成功的战斗都让我回味无穷。最终胜利了可以拥有完全的自由，失败了也不过是输给了自己，有什么要紧呢？
今年在论坛上交了不少股友，给交易生活增加了很多趣味。在这里谢谢大家。
交易日从晚上10点以后开始。我在比较晚的时候容易集中注意力，先看看指数的日线图。然后用TC2000选股，有特别感兴趣的股票还会去Yahoo Finance看看新闻和简单的基本面信息。一般会看200-500张图，TC的好处是可以很快看图，也是我几年来一直使用的主要原因。一般在12点左右确定watchlist，再用5-10分钟的时间离开屏幕沉思，决定watchlist的股票顺序。这一步很重要。然后上论坛贴出watchlist. 完成研究，睡觉。
9:00am 开始看股市，先看重要的新闻，再看有那些股票会高开。我以做晚上watchlist上的股票为主，所以对这些股票不是很重视。然后会看watchlist上的股票有没有任何新闻。股票在新高附近经常会有消息，所以时不时就有挺重要的新闻。这一步挺重要的。
9:30am 开盘。开盘后5分钟左右是我的方法的重要进点之一。主要的想法还是抓住强股。不过这时假动作较多，仓位不能太大。
9:45-10:10am 是最重要的进点。opening range breakout (ORB) 通常发生在这一段时间。10点到11点的趋势也比较稳定，可以上正常的仓位，如果开盘后买进的股票在这这里ORB，可以加比较大的仓位。
11:00-11:30am 是结束DT仓位的时间，很多股票在11点左右完成量度涨幅，是出货的好时候。
11:30am-1:00pm 尽量不操作，找时间吃午饭。
1:00-2:30pm 在很适合操作的市场里是另外一个进点。可以追突破的强股争取抓住下午的趋势。这几年的市场不是很强，很少在下午进货。
交易日里我一直会注意已有的仓位，如果跌破13EMA会出货。
3:30-4:00pm 如果持有的股票收在最高点附近，我会持有一部分或全部仓位过夜。如果股票没有涨太多，会出一部分，如果跌的话会出清。我不拿亏损的仓位过夜。
4:00-9:30pm 休息，晚饭，family time.
9:30-10:00pm 总结回顾一天的操作。
在不利于操作的日子里，我只看盘，而且经常只是三心二意的看盘。券商(IB)的网站和软件都不打开。
交易日总的来说是单调和平静的，这有利于我在市场上仔细观察，随机应变。
为什么能耐住这样的寂寞？两个字: 喜欢。股市操作是最刺激好玩的游戏。自己和自己对战，没有比这更富有挑战性的了。每一次成功的战斗都让我回味无穷。最终胜利了可以拥有完全的自由，失败了也不过是输给了自己，有什么要紧呢？
今年在论坛上交了不少股友，给交易生活增加了很多趣味。在这里谢谢大家。
我怎样用watchlist
我的watchlist是为后面几天 daytrading + swing trading 所选的股。这些股通常都处于新高位，平时走势比较稳定，并且在近期显示出了较强的momentum.
每天开盘前我会查所有candidate的当日新闻。凡是有新闻的当日重点观察。
开盘后注意强股，下跌的不予考虑。Watchlist上的股票都是我看好的。但是市场行为更重要，当走势与预期不一致时千万不可拘泥于自己的分析。再看好的股，如果开盘后没有涨，就一定不要进。已经进了的股，如果一段时间内没有涨，要随时准备出货。因为这些股票，如果能触发买进点，就意味着股市确认了自己的分析，应该快速上涨。
比较安全的进货办法是在9:50后买opening range breakout，9:50以前买进时position要小一些，这个时段假突破比较多。
强momentum经常不会持续很久，所以我在操作中采用当日目标，目标达到时会出相当一部分。如果股票成为candidate后几天内都没有上涨，我通常对它不再感兴趣。我会持续观察几天内不断上涨的candidate. 这些candidate通常可以中期持有。做中长线的股友可以重点注意这些股票。
每天开盘前我会查所有candidate的当日新闻。凡是有新闻的当日重点观察。
开盘后注意强股，下跌的不予考虑。Watchlist上的股票都是我看好的。但是市场行为更重要，当走势与预期不一致时千万不可拘泥于自己的分析。再看好的股，如果开盘后没有涨，就一定不要进。已经进了的股，如果一段时间内没有涨，要随时准备出货。因为这些股票，如果能触发买进点，就意味着股市确认了自己的分析，应该快速上涨。
比较安全的进货办法是在9:50后买opening range breakout，9:50以前买进时position要小一些，这个时段假突破比较多。
强momentum经常不会持续很久，所以我在操作中采用当日目标，目标达到时会出相当一部分。如果股票成为candidate后几天内都没有上涨，我通常对它不再感兴趣。我会持续观察几天内不断上涨的candidate. 这些candidate通常可以中期持有。做中长线的股友可以重点注意这些股票。
target_example
Bot @ ~21.4 at ~10:20am on the breakout of the one bar consolidation. Held through the three bar surge. This one has limited upside potential since the gap up of 0.3 suggests a target at ~21.6. Exited at ~21.74 on the consolidation after running to 21.8. Reasonable profit.
RVBD gapped up then traded loose and wild. Entered at 35.3 and was shaked out. Should have held longer since 35.2 is the new high area. The gap up from 33.5 to 34.7 suggests an upside target of 35.9, which was reached at 11am.FYI:我用measured move. 股票的涨跌经常是对称的。在intraday chart 和daily chart 都是如此。如果gap up $1, 那么intraday 在又涨了$1的地方通常会是阻力。会不会成为当日高点要看是怎样涨的，volume等等。rvbd gapped up 1.2, then open (34.7)+1.2 = 35.9.This is just a rough measure, it can go just below or above it, but it is usually reached in momentum situations. IPO gapped up to new high is a mommentum situation.
我怎样操作季报
公司的季报反映了公司的基本面，通常对股票后面几个月的走势有决定性影响。季报后的几天到几周可能会有比较强的趋势，我的操作方法最重要的应用就是做季报后的走势。
我还是主要做新高附近的股票，主要做多。有以下几个方法
1) 季报后当天。
前一天收盘后或当天开盘前的季报，当天股票高开，注意看有没有回调，以及回调的幅度和成交量。最好的是高开到历史新高，回调较浅和回调成交量低。买点是向上ORB创当日新高。10点附近的ORB可靠性较大。
这个方法风险较大，因为已经高开了，再向上的涨幅通常有限，要注意用当日目标止赢。这个方法我喜欢程度是3/5。
2) 季报后过一天。
季报造成的市场影响在前一天已经看到了，第二天我只看前一天收盘在最高点附近的股票。最好的情况是低开或持平开盘，在短暂的回调后再创新高。买点也是向上ORB创当日新高。10点附近的ORB可靠性较大。
这个方法风险比 1) 小一些，因为前一天收在高点说明买压强劲，一些卖家已经在开盘后的回调时出了，如果昨天的买家还要买就只能把价钱抬上去。这个方法也要注意用当日目标止赢。喜欢程度是4/5。
见下图，FCSX 4/13 星期五开盘前季报，星期五和星期一的走势是方法 1) 和 2) 的完美应用。
3) 季报后在日线图上有几天的回调，二周内创新高
经过日线图上的回调后，可以从回调的天数，幅度和成交量看出卖压的大小。最好的是三天以内的回调，(三天内达到回调低点，然后重新上涨)，回调较浅和回调成交量低。买点是新高位。这个买点不用太精确。因为这次突破有可能是一个持续几周的趋势的开始。
这个方法风险最小。卖压在回调时已经消化的差不多了，通常不会有大幅度的再次回调。这是一个swing trading的方法。潜在回报很大。喜欢程度是5/5。
如果说我有秘诀的话，这一系列方法就是我最重要的秘诀。其实它们不仅适用于季报，当公司有其他重大新闻，如大合同，FDA批准等等时也适用。我没有，也不打算把具体操作方法说得更详细。请大家在市场里体会。
我还是主要做新高附近的股票，主要做多。有以下几个方法
1) 季报后当天。
前一天收盘后或当天开盘前的季报，当天股票高开，注意看有没有回调，以及回调的幅度和成交量。最好的是高开到历史新高，回调较浅和回调成交量低。买点是向上ORB创当日新高。10点附近的ORB可靠性较大。
这个方法风险较大，因为已经高开了，再向上的涨幅通常有限，要注意用当日目标止赢。这个方法我喜欢程度是3/5。
2) 季报后过一天。
季报造成的市场影响在前一天已经看到了，第二天我只看前一天收盘在最高点附近的股票。最好的情况是低开或持平开盘，在短暂的回调后再创新高。买点也是向上ORB创当日新高。10点附近的ORB可靠性较大。
这个方法风险比 1) 小一些，因为前一天收在高点说明买压强劲，一些卖家已经在开盘后的回调时出了，如果昨天的买家还要买就只能把价钱抬上去。这个方法也要注意用当日目标止赢。喜欢程度是4/5。
见下图，FCSX 4/13 星期五开盘前季报，星期五和星期一的走势是方法 1) 和 2) 的完美应用。
3) 季报后在日线图上有几天的回调，二周内创新高
经过日线图上的回调后，可以从回调的天数，幅度和成交量看出卖压的大小。最好的是三天以内的回调，(三天内达到回调低点，然后重新上涨)，回调较浅和回调成交量低。买点是新高位。这个买点不用太精确。因为这次突破有可能是一个持续几周的趋势的开始。
这个方法风险最小。卖压在回调时已经消化的差不多了，通常不会有大幅度的再次回调。这是一个swing trading的方法。潜在回报很大。喜欢程度是5/5。
如果说我有秘诀的话，这一系列方法就是我最重要的秘诀。其实它们不仅适用于季报，当公司有其他重大新闻，如大合同，FDA批准等等时也适用。我没有，也不打算把具体操作方法说得更详细。请大家在市场里体会。
pick up_trader huaren
Q: 你每天都能找出这么多pick,能说说你screen的思路么?
A: 我每天看新高(按当日涨幅排序的，看最前面的)，当日最大涨幅，和当日最大相对成交量并且上涨的股。看到感兴趣的就连续几天观察。最重要的是找到有momentum的股票。
Q: 你经常在股票跌了几毛钱就卖了，为什么不等等看是不是会涨回来呢？
A: 我的仓位通常在1000股或以上，跌0.30就是$300以上的损失了。我的收入要靠股市，所以这样的损失是不可接受的。必须止损。我的进点通常选择在刚突破阻力或有强大的向上momentum时，股票在我买进后就应该上涨，既然它跌了，就说明我的买进是错的。改正错误的办法就是平仓卖出。另外根据经验，真正的强股上涨的速度很快，不会回调到我的进点以下。使我有损失的都是不那么强的。所以出了也不值得遗憾。
Q: I am a new hand here. what is '13bar MA on 5 min chart'. can you give an chart example and explain a little bit more. Thanks.
A: There is a good article at stockcharts.com on moving averages.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...oving_averages
If you look at the intraday chart I posted, each bar is 5 min of price movement, 13 bar EMA takes into account 13 bars. The calculation method is shown in the article.
Q: 你是全职trader吗？
A: 我基本上是。我的大多数收入都来自股市操作。另外我还有一个电子商务网站，提供一定的收入。我每天上午和中午都会看盘或操作，下午有时要做网站的业务。晚上选股和写操作日记。
A: 我每天看新高(按当日涨幅排序的，看最前面的)，当日最大涨幅，和当日最大相对成交量并且上涨的股。看到感兴趣的就连续几天观察。最重要的是找到有momentum的股票。
Q: 你经常在股票跌了几毛钱就卖了，为什么不等等看是不是会涨回来呢？
A: 我的仓位通常在1000股或以上，跌0.30就是$300以上的损失了。我的收入要靠股市，所以这样的损失是不可接受的。必须止损。我的进点通常选择在刚突破阻力或有强大的向上momentum时，股票在我买进后就应该上涨，既然它跌了，就说明我的买进是错的。改正错误的办法就是平仓卖出。另外根据经验，真正的强股上涨的速度很快，不会回调到我的进点以下。使我有损失的都是不那么强的。所以出了也不值得遗憾。
Q: I am a new hand here. what is '13bar MA on 5 min chart'. can you give an chart example and explain a little bit more. Thanks.
A: There is a good article at stockcharts.com on moving averages.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...oving_averages
If you look at the intraday chart I posted, each bar is 5 min of price movement, 13 bar EMA takes into account 13 bars. The calculation method is shown in the article.
Q: 你是全职trader吗？
A: 我基本上是。我的大多数收入都来自股市操作。另外我还有一个电子商务网站，提供一定的收入。我每天上午和中午都会看盘或操作，下午有时要做网站的业务。晚上选股和写操作日记。
Websites for trading ideas
Websites for trading ideas
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I check the following websites premarket and during the trading day to get trading ideas:
NASDAQ Pre-Market Most Active http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/dynamic/premarketma.stm
In Play by Briefing.comhttp://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/inplay
StreetInsider analysishttp://www.streetinsider.com/General+News
EarningsWatch at MarketWatchhttp://www.marketwatch.com/news/mark...ningswatch.asp
Movers and Shakers at MarketWatchhttp://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...rs+%26+shakers
Nasdaq 52-Week Highs by % Price Gain at MarketWatchhttp://www.marketwatch.com/tools/mar...lookup=Look+Up
Rising on Unusual Volume by Investor's Business Dailyhttp://finance.yahoo.com/unusualvolume/rising
NASDAQ After Hours Most Active http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/dynamic/afterhourma.stm
DING--Trader.Just to add one site onto this nice list above. This site gives daily most active stocks by vol or total $, plus top gainers/losers. I often screen those top gainers/losers to look for new highs/lows.
http://dynamic.nasdaq.com
Add one more blog tracking US-listed chinese stocks:
http://www.cnanalyst.com/morning_news/index.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I check the following websites premarket and during the trading day to get trading ideas:
NASDAQ Pre-Market Most Active http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/dynamic/premarketma.stm
In Play by Briefing.comhttp://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/inplay
StreetInsider analysishttp://www.streetinsider.com/General+News
EarningsWatch at MarketWatchhttp://www.marketwatch.com/news/mark...ningswatch.asp
Movers and Shakers at MarketWatchhttp://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...rs+%26+shakers
Nasdaq 52-Week Highs by % Price Gain at MarketWatchhttp://www.marketwatch.com/tools/mar...lookup=Look+Up
Rising on Unusual Volume by Investor's Business Dailyhttp://finance.yahoo.com/unusualvolume/rising
NASDAQ After Hours Most Active http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/dynamic/afterhourma.stm
DING--Trader.Just to add one site onto this nice list above. This site gives daily most active stocks by vol or total $, plus top gainers/losers. I often screen those top gainers/losers to look for new highs/lows.
http://dynamic.nasdaq.com
Add one more blog tracking US-listed chinese stocks:
http://www.cnanalyst.com/morning_news/index.html
发信人: RockStone (本不笨), 信区: Stock
标 题: 刚刚给老婆写的2008年炒股策略，转贴到这里一下发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 9 01:58:11 2008)
PP:
2008热点是下面一些市场：
1. 新兴国家：巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国（BRIC)一些相应的基金Latin American 2X : DXZLXiShare MSCI Brazil: EWZAIM China AACFXNationwide China Opptunity: GOPAX
2. Natual Gas ( 个股: UPL)
3. 太阳能和替代能源 ( 基金: PBW， CGMFX ) 不要碰个股，危险很大
4. 农业相关、化肥 ： 基金 DBA个股 AGU BG CF MOS MON POT AND TNH
5.中国奥运效应： BIDU(百度）, FMCN(老林说的广告公司），NTES（网易）, CTRP(中国旅游网站）
6.医药相关、HEALTH CARE （这个部分和经济发展关系不大）CMED (中国医疗技术公司)ESRX MHS HUM SIE CI HNT
7 黄金和矿产：NG AUY NEM TGB ABX AEM HMY TRE GG KGC GLD RGLD GSS HL IAG
8 市场反向基金EFZ EFU EUM EEV EWV QID SDS DXD SKF SRS MZZ TWM
9 深海钻油： 你是大明白 Oii, ccj
切记： 房市崩溃，紧接着就是信用卡市场，所以别碰银行、零售相关股票。高科技也不稳定。
买股票记住：
买天天百姓生活必须的，和经济无关的股票，并且是行业龙头股别碰狂跌的股票，跌的股票，永远不知道哪是底。（例如：AMD, CFC, ETFC)
标 题: 刚刚给老婆写的2008年炒股策略，转贴到这里一下发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 9 01:58:11 2008)
PP:
2008热点是下面一些市场：
1. 新兴国家：巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国（BRIC)一些相应的基金Latin American 2X : DXZLXiShare MSCI Brazil: EWZAIM China AACFXNationwide China Opptunity: GOPAX
2. Natual Gas ( 个股: UPL)
3. 太阳能和替代能源 ( 基金: PBW， CGMFX ) 不要碰个股，危险很大
4. 农业相关、化肥 ： 基金 DBA个股 AGU BG CF MOS MON POT AND TNH
5.中国奥运效应： BIDU(百度）, FMCN(老林说的广告公司），NTES（网易）, CTRP(中国旅游网站）
6.医药相关、HEALTH CARE （这个部分和经济发展关系不大）CMED (中国医疗技术公司)ESRX MHS HUM SIE CI HNT
7 黄金和矿产：NG AUY NEM TGB ABX AEM HMY TRE GG KGC GLD RGLD GSS HL IAG
8 市场反向基金EFZ EFU EUM EEV EWV QID SDS DXD SKF SRS MZZ TWM
9 深海钻油： 你是大明白 Oii, ccj
切记： 房市崩溃，紧接着就是信用卡市场，所以别碰银行、零售相关股票。高科技也不稳定。
买股票记住：
买天天百姓生活必须的，和经济无关的股票，并且是行业龙头股别碰狂跌的股票，跌的股票，永远不知道哪是底。（例如：AMD, CFC, ETFC)
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
huarenbbs.com
BMRN, CVD, PPDI
http://www.fulltimetrader.com/traderwatchlist.shtml
Trading Watchlist
I post my watchlist at huarenbbs.com. It is posted nightly for next day's trading.
Focus list
The watchlist consists of two sections, the Focus list for my best trading ideas, and other stocks worth watching.
There are usually 2-5 stocks on the Focus list. A typical Focus stock is in a strong industry group, gapped up to historical high today, closed near the high of the day, and had highly important news.
How to trade
I scan market news before open. If any stock on the watchlist releases news, I will pay extra attention to the stock.
I only consider stocks that are positive on the day. There are three major entry points:
Opening range breakout.
Stock goes from negative to positive.
Stock breaks previous day's high
Intraday trends between 9:45am and 11:00am tend to be more consistent. There are more false breakouts before 9:45am.
Strong momentum often lasts for a short time only. I use measured move to calculate intraday targets and take profit. If a stock exceeds the targets and keeps rising, it may be a good candidate for swing trading.
money management
Trading is all about trying not to lose. If I can manage the losses, the profit will take care of itself.
The first trade of the day is very important. Whether it's a profit or loss is an indicator of whether the day will be profitable. Be selective on the first trade, and the position size can be smaller than usual.
If the first trade is a loss, be extra careful on the next trades, if two consecutive trades are losses. Stop trading for the day and take a rest. There are plenty of opportunities tomorrow.
Open one or two positions only at the same time. Focus on the best one/two ideas.
If a position works, concentrate on that position. "If a position goes in your favor, you don't care how big the position gets." (Soros)
Never allow a profitable position to turn into a loss. As soon as the position moves in my favor. I'll move my stop to breakeven.
Never average down.
Never hold a loser overnight.
If the last two or three days are losing days, cut position size at least in half, and make one trade a day only, until things improve.
Let me end with a few quotes on risk control and money management:
"If you have an approach that makes money, then money management can make the difference between success and failure... ... I try to be conservative in my risk management. I want to make sure I'll be around to play tomorrow. Risk control is essential." - Monroe Trout
"If you personalize losses, you can't trade." - Bruce Kovner
"The best traders have no ego. You have to swallow your pride and get out of the losses." - Tom Baldwin
"Never risk more than 1% of your total equity in any one trade. By risking 1%, I am indifferent to any individual trade. Keeping your risk small and constant is absolutely critical." - Larry Hite.
我的一个交易日
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
我的一个正常的交易日是这样的。
交易日从晚上10点以后开始。我在比较晚的时候容易集中注意力，先看看指数的日线图。然后用TC2000选股，有特别感兴趣的股票还会去Yahoo Finance看看新闻和简单的基本面信息。一般会看200-500张图，TC的好处是可以很快看图，也是我几年来一直使用的主要原因。一般在12点左右确定watchlist，再用5-10分钟的时间离开屏幕沉思，决定watchlist的股票顺序。这一步很重要。然后上论坛贴出watchlist. 完成研究，睡觉。
9:00am 开始看股市，先看重要的新闻，再看有那些股票会高开。我以做晚上watchlist上的股票为主，所以对这些股票不是很重视。然后会看watchlist上的股票有没有任何新闻。股票在新高附近经常会有消息，所以时不时就有挺重要的新闻。这一步挺重要的。
9:30am 开盘。开盘后5分钟左右是我的方法的重要进点之一。主要的想法还是抓住强股。不过这时假动作较多，仓位不能太大。
9:45-10:10am 是最重要的进点。opening range breakout (ORB) 通常发生在这一段时间。10点到11点的趋势也比较稳定，可以上正常的仓位，如果开盘后买进的股票在这这里ORB，可以加比较大的仓位。
11:00-11:30am 是结束DT仓位的时间，很多股票在11点左右完成量度涨幅，是出货的好时候。
11:30am-1:00pm 尽量不操作，找时间吃午饭。
1:00-2:30pm 在很适合操作的市场里是另外一个进点。可以追突破的强股争取抓住下午的趋势。这几年的市场不是很强，很少在下午进货。
交易日里我一直会注意已有的仓位，如果跌破13EMA会出货。
3:30-4:00pm 如果持有的股票收在最高点附近，我会持有一部分或全部仓位过夜。如果股票没有涨太多，会出一部分，如果跌的话会出清。我不拿亏损的仓位过夜。
4:00-9:30pm 休息，晚饭，family time.
9:30-10:00pm 总结回顾一天的操作。
在不利于操作的日子里，我只看盘，而且经常只是三心二意的看盘。券商(IB)的网站和软件都不打开。
交易日总的来说是单调和平静的，这有利于我在市场上仔细观察，随机应变。
为什么能耐住这样的寂寞？两个字: 喜欢。股市操作是最刺激好玩的游戏。自己和自己对战，没有比这更富有挑战性的了。每一次成功的战斗都让我回味无穷。最终胜利了可以拥有完全的自由，失败了也不过是输给了自己，有什么要紧呢？
Strategy
I buy stocks that made new high recently on strong momentum, went through tight consolidation, and are breaking out again.
Swing TradingRules for buys:
1. On Day 1 (within the previous 5 trading days), the stock must do all of the following:
Made a 52 week high, historical high is even better. Day 1's range was the largest in the previous 10 trading days. A gap up is even better. The stock closed near its high of the day. stock released news that had significant impact on future earnings.
2. Stock consolidated after Day 1, never breaking below the low of Day 1.
3. Today the stock must do all of the following:
Makes a new high, the first new high after consolidation. Today's range must be larger than all the consolidation days. Today's close must be near its high of the day.
4. Buy tomorrow on an opening range breakout (ORB) to the upside.
5. The stop is at 5% loss.
Day TradingRules for buys:
1. Today the stock did all of the following:
Made a 52 week high, historical high is even better. Today's range was the largest in the previous 10 trading days. A gap up is even better.
2. Buy tomorrow on an opening range breakout (ORB) to the upside.
3. The initial stop is the low of the opening range. I use the 13 bar EMA on a 5 minute chart as trailing stop.
If a stock never breaks the trailing stop and close near the high of the day, I hold at least half of the position overnight.
Opening range breakout (ORB)Stocks form an opening range (OR) in the first 15-30 minutes of trading. Valid ORBs often meet one or more of the following conditions:
ORB occurs between 9:50am and 10:10am. Low volume in the OR and high volume on the breakout. OR is narrow and flat.
In my main strategies, the stock is trading at a 52 week high, it has broken out again after at least an intraday consolidation on Day 1, The stock should be in a strong industry group and it just released positive news. I have both the technical and fundamental sides working for me in the immediate short term, and the path of least resistance after the ORB is likely to be up.
BMRN, CVD, PPDI
http://www.fulltimetrader.com/traderwatchlist.shtml
Trading Watchlist
I post my watchlist at huarenbbs.com. It is posted nightly for next day's trading.
Focus list
The watchlist consists of two sections, the Focus list for my best trading ideas, and other stocks worth watching.
There are usually 2-5 stocks on the Focus list. A typical Focus stock is in a strong industry group, gapped up to historical high today, closed near the high of the day, and had highly important news.
How to trade
I scan market news before open. If any stock on the watchlist releases news, I will pay extra attention to the stock.
I only consider stocks that are positive on the day. There are three major entry points:
Opening range breakout.
Stock goes from negative to positive.
Stock breaks previous day's high
Intraday trends between 9:45am and 11:00am tend to be more consistent. There are more false breakouts before 9:45am.
Strong momentum often lasts for a short time only. I use measured move to calculate intraday targets and take profit. If a stock exceeds the targets and keeps rising, it may be a good candidate for swing trading.
money management
Trading is all about trying not to lose. If I can manage the losses, the profit will take care of itself.
The first trade of the day is very important. Whether it's a profit or loss is an indicator of whether the day will be profitable. Be selective on the first trade, and the position size can be smaller than usual.
If the first trade is a loss, be extra careful on the next trades, if two consecutive trades are losses. Stop trading for the day and take a rest. There are plenty of opportunities tomorrow.
Open one or two positions only at the same time. Focus on the best one/two ideas.
If a position works, concentrate on that position. "If a position goes in your favor, you don't care how big the position gets." (Soros)
Never allow a profitable position to turn into a loss. As soon as the position moves in my favor. I'll move my stop to breakeven.
Never average down.
Never hold a loser overnight.
If the last two or three days are losing days, cut position size at least in half, and make one trade a day only, until things improve.
Let me end with a few quotes on risk control and money management:
"If you have an approach that makes money, then money management can make the difference between success and failure... ... I try to be conservative in my risk management. I want to make sure I'll be around to play tomorrow. Risk control is essential." - Monroe Trout
"If you personalize losses, you can't trade." - Bruce Kovner
"The best traders have no ego. You have to swallow your pride and get out of the losses." - Tom Baldwin
"Never risk more than 1% of your total equity in any one trade. By risking 1%, I am indifferent to any individual trade. Keeping your risk small and constant is absolutely critical." - Larry Hite.
我的一个交易日
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
我的一个正常的交易日是这样的。
交易日从晚上10点以后开始。我在比较晚的时候容易集中注意力，先看看指数的日线图。然后用TC2000选股，有特别感兴趣的股票还会去Yahoo Finance看看新闻和简单的基本面信息。一般会看200-500张图，TC的好处是可以很快看图，也是我几年来一直使用的主要原因。一般在12点左右确定watchlist，再用5-10分钟的时间离开屏幕沉思，决定watchlist的股票顺序。这一步很重要。然后上论坛贴出watchlist. 完成研究，睡觉。
9:00am 开始看股市，先看重要的新闻，再看有那些股票会高开。我以做晚上watchlist上的股票为主，所以对这些股票不是很重视。然后会看watchlist上的股票有没有任何新闻。股票在新高附近经常会有消息，所以时不时就有挺重要的新闻。这一步挺重要的。
9:30am 开盘。开盘后5分钟左右是我的方法的重要进点之一。主要的想法还是抓住强股。不过这时假动作较多，仓位不能太大。
9:45-10:10am 是最重要的进点。opening range breakout (ORB) 通常发生在这一段时间。10点到11点的趋势也比较稳定，可以上正常的仓位，如果开盘后买进的股票在这这里ORB，可以加比较大的仓位。
11:00-11:30am 是结束DT仓位的时间，很多股票在11点左右完成量度涨幅，是出货的好时候。
11:30am-1:00pm 尽量不操作，找时间吃午饭。
1:00-2:30pm 在很适合操作的市场里是另外一个进点。可以追突破的强股争取抓住下午的趋势。这几年的市场不是很强，很少在下午进货。
交易日里我一直会注意已有的仓位，如果跌破13EMA会出货。
3:30-4:00pm 如果持有的股票收在最高点附近，我会持有一部分或全部仓位过夜。如果股票没有涨太多，会出一部分，如果跌的话会出清。我不拿亏损的仓位过夜。
4:00-9:30pm 休息，晚饭，family time.
9:30-10:00pm 总结回顾一天的操作。
在不利于操作的日子里，我只看盘，而且经常只是三心二意的看盘。券商(IB)的网站和软件都不打开。
交易日总的来说是单调和平静的，这有利于我在市场上仔细观察，随机应变。
为什么能耐住这样的寂寞？两个字: 喜欢。股市操作是最刺激好玩的游戏。自己和自己对战，没有比这更富有挑战性的了。每一次成功的战斗都让我回味无穷。最终胜利了可以拥有完全的自由，失败了也不过是输给了自己，有什么要紧呢？
Strategy
I buy stocks that made new high recently on strong momentum, went through tight consolidation, and are breaking out again.
Swing TradingRules for buys:
1. On Day 1 (within the previous 5 trading days), the stock must do all of the following:
Made a 52 week high, historical high is even better. Day 1's range was the largest in the previous 10 trading days. A gap up is even better. The stock closed near its high of the day. stock released news that had significant impact on future earnings.
2. Stock consolidated after Day 1, never breaking below the low of Day 1.
3. Today the stock must do all of the following:
Makes a new high, the first new high after consolidation. Today's range must be larger than all the consolidation days. Today's close must be near its high of the day.
4. Buy tomorrow on an opening range breakout (ORB) to the upside.
5. The stop is at 5% loss.
Day TradingRules for buys:
1. Today the stock did all of the following:
Made a 52 week high, historical high is even better. Today's range was the largest in the previous 10 trading days. A gap up is even better.
2. Buy tomorrow on an opening range breakout (ORB) to the upside.
3. The initial stop is the low of the opening range. I use the 13 bar EMA on a 5 minute chart as trailing stop.
If a stock never breaks the trailing stop and close near the high of the day, I hold at least half of the position overnight.
Opening range breakout (ORB)Stocks form an opening range (OR) in the first 15-30 minutes of trading. Valid ORBs often meet one or more of the following conditions:
ORB occurs between 9:50am and 10:10am. Low volume in the OR and high volume on the breakout. OR is narrow and flat.
In my main strategies, the stock is trading at a 52 week high, it has broken out again after at least an intraday consolidation on Day 1, The stock should be in a strong industry group and it just released positive news. I have both the technical and fundamental sides working for me in the immediate short term, and the path of least resistance after the ORB is likely to be up.
Monday, January 7, 2008
JASO 3 to1 split on 2/7/08
Mixed signal after today, totally confused? It is nice to see tomorrow's move.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
读书园地：Profit from bull and bear market(1) Stage Analysis
读书园地：Profit from bull and bear market(1) Stage Analysis
来源: entry 于 08-01-01 06:00:31
Stage 1：basing area股价经过一段时间下跌后，进入盘整期。卖方与买方力量相当，成交量萎缩。在此期间，不要有任何交易，否则会造成亏损。典型特征为50天均线走平
Stage 2: advancing pahse在某一天放量突破，进入拉升期。此时为最好的买入时机。典型特征为50天均线在突破后开始上扬。
Stage 3：top area经过一定的拉升，交易量维持高位但股价不在上行。 典型特征为50天均线走平，股价在均线上下穿越。此时可开始考虑卖出股票，但还不到做空时候。
Stage 4：declining phase如股价跌破stage 3 的支撑位，则开始进入stage 4. 典型特征为50天均线开始下行。此时可开始做空，但千万不要买多。
如上图所示：WYNN 经历了一个很长一段头肩底形态，此时为stage 1. 目前为stage 4, 所以不要盲目买多。 我一直在做空这只股票。LVS 和 MGM are in the same stage now.
Friday, January 4, 2008
01-07-2008 watch list
Prediction:
SOLAR, SOLAR, SOLAR!
1. AKNS, 高开，short !
2. Closely watch CSUN, might open lower and go lower, or open flat, go higher, depends on the index and momentum. (Big buying volume, lower and lower selling volume)
3. SOLF
4. CSIQ
SOLAR, SOLAR, SOLAR!
1. AKNS, 高开，short !
2. Closely watch CSUN, might open lower and go lower, or open flat, go higher, depends on the index and momentum. (Big buying volume, lower and lower selling volume)
3. SOLF
4. CSIQ
5. CROX
6. FFIV 7. TLEO
8. TBSI
9. URRE
10. CC
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
Opinions in 2008
发信人: desertz (我所热爱的传说), 信区: Stock
标 题: 2008 Stock Market View (I)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 3 20:57:45 2008)
I want to share some of my thoughts on the stock market next year.
Economy
Let me start from the economy. No doubt US economy will grow more slowly in 2008. The major worry comes from the consumers, which represent 2/3 of the GDP. The two major negative developments are driving this consumer slow-down: inflating commodity price, and housing market crush. The commodity price has been driving prices of everyday consumer products higher, from gas to food, and cutting into consumers’ allocable income. The housing market crush, as well as the follow-on credit crunch, has further squeezed people’s perceived wealth and actual spending power.
Is there going to be a recession? I don’t know. But it doesn’t matter. A 0.2% GDP growth is not much different from a -0.2% one. The key to determine a mere slow-down from a recession will be the job market. We should monitor it very closely. As long as people have jobs, everything will be OK. They may spend a little less, but they will continue to spend. So far the job market has held very well. We are not seeing any employment weakness across the major industries – except construction and financials. Even for financials, it seems not that bad – retailing financials are still doing well.
Are corporations going to cut capital spending? We are starting to see a little weakness sign, but still not very confirming. Overall, I don’t see major risk in near term. Opposite to the period prior to the 2001 recession,US corporations have been conservative on capital investment for the past these years. We are definitely not in a bubble state, therefore won’t have a quick burst. On the other hand, with a negative saving rate, US consumers have been spending more than they earned, and are far over-stretched. So clearly, no matter an economy slow down or recession, it will come mainly from consumer spending, not corporations’ investment.
Inflation
Inflation is the major fear to the economy. I was very surprised to see thatthe CPI had been pretty stable prior to November. According to conventionaltheory, the high commodity price should have driven up prices for every merchandize. But we are not really seeing that. Why? We have two possible explanations. First, commodity represents a much smaller portion in the economic flow. For example, even with $3+ gas price, gas’ portion in consumer spending (3%) is much lower than 1981 (5%+). A bigger portion of values are created from the skill, knowledge, innovation, and investment on information technology. So the effect of material-led inflation is not as obvious as in 70/80s.
The second explanation comes from a much deeper globalization. Developing countries like China have provided unlimited cheap labor, so driving down cost dramatically in the past decade. Now the worry is, China is also experiencing the inflation, and this will transfer to the export price sooner or later. But overall, globalization has helped the world a lot in regards to curbing global inflation.
I think we will see a modest inflation pressure in 2008. CPI will rise gradually to 2-3% for the year. Fed will have less room to loosen the monetary policy.
Corporate Profit
Corporate profit will be affected by factors from two sides: cost and end price/volume.
On the cost side, as mentioned above, globalization has helped the multinational corporations to drive down labor cost and generated unseen level of profit. Corporation profit as percent of GDP is on the historical high. Will this trend reverse? It will sooner or later some day (and might be happening locally, as seen from US’ import price index), but this will be long process and reversal won’t be that fast. There are still a lot of cheap labors left in low income countries. Capitalists will do everything toexploit every bit of profit. Capital will hold an advantage competing against labor in the world scope in the foreseeable future. (I had an interesting discussion with coke mm long time ago on this topic: http://trader818.com/bb/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=6074&start=0&st=0&sk=t&sd=a)
More immediate risk is from raw resource input. High commodity price will drive up cost and cut into corporation’s profit. And this is difficult to be passed to the end consumers. Every company which can not control the natural resource input will be hurt hardly in this transition.
On the demand side, we know US economy will be slowing down. So companies who focus on US market, especially consumer product market will be negatively affected.
Here again, globalization will save those corporations with diversified markets. Emerging economies will likely maintain strong growth. South America, Russia, and Australia will prosper due to the raw material boom. Europe is another risk, but European companies’ hard work to transfer manufacture to low cost regions, Euro’s emerge, and the improved flexibility across the European countries in the past years have made Europea stronger economy compared to a decade ago.
As a summary, corporation profit will likely to grow more slowly in 2008. Itmay even be flat or down, if Europe has a sudden unexpected slow-down. However, the impact will be dramatically uneven, with some companies hit hard, and some others even benefiting from the process (those who have globalized market and can control raw input).
US Stock Market
I mentioned that prolonged benefit from globalization will somehow offset risk from commodity inflation and any weakness in a single market. So for long term (1-10 years), I don’t think stagflation in 70s will come back, and rather suspect we are still in the middle of the secular bull market brought by deeper globalization, more sophisticated economic/monetary policy, and continuous productivity gain from innovation and information technology investment.
This doesn’t say that we won’t see corrections, even major corrections (20– 30% down). But they won’t be long and staggering, like those in 70s’.
Still, 2008 will likely be a lackluster year for stock. No matter if we willhave an actual recession, the fear will likely throw the market up and downdramacitally, especially in the first half of the year. But honestly, no matter it is 3% or 10% rise in year end, I don’t think that forecast reallymatters a lot. Instead, I am sure about two things: First, it will be a volatile year. A lot of structural changes are happening for the economy, and a lot of contradictive forces are emerging in the market. Second, we will see huge uneven performance from companies across different sectors, regions, and with different relative strength – some will prosper and others will fall down like stones. So, be cautious and be selective.
--
※ 来源:·WWW 未名空间站 海外: mitbbs.com 中国: mitbbs.cn·[FROM: 64.4.]
发信人: desertz (我所热爱的传说), 信区: Stock
标 题: 2008 Stock Market View (II)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 4 20:00:57 2008)
Now let’s look into the sectors.
Natural Resource
The natural resource sector will continue the boom into 2008. However, therehas been a great run so far and most of commodities are at historical high,so it doesn’t look as safe as one or two years ago. We need to look more closely at the fundamental dynamics to distinguish values from hypes.
Out of the all resources, I think oil and agriculture are the most promising. This is drawn from the analysis of long term demand and supply. I won’t repeat the long story here. But in short, these two are the ones that are the most difficult to increase supply and with inflexible demand. The unbalance of supply and demand will last far longer than most people can think of. So they fall into the so called “secular” boom category. My forecast is oil will reach $150 as early as in 2008, and prices for all the agriculture products will continue to rise.
I see more uncertainty in the development of other commodities, especially gold (and other precious metals). First, not like oil, gold doesn’t disappear after being consumed, only to be recycled, so in theory we will have more and more gold available with year after year production. Second, gold’s role as a financial reserve choice is much less significant nowadays. Third, gold’s current appreciation is tied closed to dollar’s depreciation. Although dollar inclines to the further down trend, I really suspect how long this trend will sustain. My instinct is that it may be not very far to the bottom and the dollar may reverse the decline against Euro sometime in 2008. At least there is a lot of uncertainty involved here. Backa step, if you are certain dollar will depreciate, why not short dollar directly? Historical record shows the precious metals have the worst long-term performance compared to other commodities adjusted to inflation.
As a whole, commodities will continue to boom in 2008, but I would focus on oil and agriculture and be cautious on others.
Financials
No need to repeat the current state of financial industry. The question is, where is the bottom? I believe many people are eyeing the premium names likeCitigroup, which is cut half on stock price and wondering if it is the timeto step in. I can not say more than a few guesses since I am not expert in the industry. First, don’t try to guess how deep the water is if you are not capable. Only well-educated and well-informed can make a good fortune. Second, try to distinguish one-time event from repeating ones. Sub-prime write-off is one time. Permanent losing securitization business is repeating. Default provision is one time, disappearing loan customer is repeating. Aslong as you are confident about to do this, you can try your luck. The third is, as a long term value investor, bear market is the best opportunityto get rich. You identify the ones which are strong and suffer from only temporary bad environment. But the process will be painful.
Consumer product
Consumer product is not promising in 2008. We already see consumer discretionary (dining, apparel, auto) fall hard when the economy poses to slow down. But even consumer staple won’t be saved in a consumer-led recession, though they will fall less. The food companies will continue to struggle to code with the skyrocketing raw material cost and lukewarm end user demand. As long as they don’t control their raw input, they will suffer. We will see the highly-respected brands dive to water through the next few months. When everyone lost hope, then maybe it is the opportunity to grab a few shares. Overall, I see it is easier to do the bottom fish herecompared to financials. It is not because the timing is easier. It is because it is more transparent to outsiders, and you know consumers will pick up stream finally and those highly-respected brands will be fine then.
However, there are always a few bright spots in the depressed industry. I see some major trends are emerging and they will change the consumers and the industry.
The first is the transition of shopping to online. Amazon/Ebay/Google will buck the industry’s atmosphere and continue to prosper. The second is portable electronic devices (or gadgets)’s moving to mainstream. We alreadysaw the blowout of GPS and smartphone in the past year. And we will see continuous emerge of new devices. The third is the new gaming/entertaining industry. Game console transition and PC/gadget’s convergence will continueto help this industry to grow in 2008.
※ 来源:·WWW 未名空间站 海外: mitbbs.com 中国: mitbbs.cn·[FROM: 64.4.]
标 题: 2008 Stock Market View (I)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 3 20:57:45 2008)
I want to share some of my thoughts on the stock market next year.
Economy
Let me start from the economy. No doubt US economy will grow more slowly in 2008. The major worry comes from the consumers, which represent 2/3 of the GDP. The two major negative developments are driving this consumer slow-down: inflating commodity price, and housing market crush. The commodity price has been driving prices of everyday consumer products higher, from gas to food, and cutting into consumers’ allocable income. The housing market crush, as well as the follow-on credit crunch, has further squeezed people’s perceived wealth and actual spending power.
Is there going to be a recession? I don’t know. But it doesn’t matter. A 0.2% GDP growth is not much different from a -0.2% one. The key to determine a mere slow-down from a recession will be the job market. We should monitor it very closely. As long as people have jobs, everything will be OK. They may spend a little less, but they will continue to spend. So far the job market has held very well. We are not seeing any employment weakness across the major industries – except construction and financials. Even for financials, it seems not that bad – retailing financials are still doing well.
Are corporations going to cut capital spending? We are starting to see a little weakness sign, but still not very confirming. Overall, I don’t see major risk in near term. Opposite to the period prior to the 2001 recession,US corporations have been conservative on capital investment for the past these years. We are definitely not in a bubble state, therefore won’t have a quick burst. On the other hand, with a negative saving rate, US consumers have been spending more than they earned, and are far over-stretched. So clearly, no matter an economy slow down or recession, it will come mainly from consumer spending, not corporations’ investment.
Inflation
Inflation is the major fear to the economy. I was very surprised to see thatthe CPI had been pretty stable prior to November. According to conventionaltheory, the high commodity price should have driven up prices for every merchandize. But we are not really seeing that. Why? We have two possible explanations. First, commodity represents a much smaller portion in the economic flow. For example, even with $3+ gas price, gas’ portion in consumer spending (3%) is much lower than 1981 (5%+). A bigger portion of values are created from the skill, knowledge, innovation, and investment on information technology. So the effect of material-led inflation is not as obvious as in 70/80s.
The second explanation comes from a much deeper globalization. Developing countries like China have provided unlimited cheap labor, so driving down cost dramatically in the past decade. Now the worry is, China is also experiencing the inflation, and this will transfer to the export price sooner or later. But overall, globalization has helped the world a lot in regards to curbing global inflation.
I think we will see a modest inflation pressure in 2008. CPI will rise gradually to 2-3% for the year. Fed will have less room to loosen the monetary policy.
Corporate Profit
Corporate profit will be affected by factors from two sides: cost and end price/volume.
On the cost side, as mentioned above, globalization has helped the multinational corporations to drive down labor cost and generated unseen level of profit. Corporation profit as percent of GDP is on the historical high. Will this trend reverse? It will sooner or later some day (and might be happening locally, as seen from US’ import price index), but this will be long process and reversal won’t be that fast. There are still a lot of cheap labors left in low income countries. Capitalists will do everything toexploit every bit of profit. Capital will hold an advantage competing against labor in the world scope in the foreseeable future. (I had an interesting discussion with coke mm long time ago on this topic: http://trader818.com/bb/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=6074&start=0&st=0&sk=t&sd=a)
More immediate risk is from raw resource input. High commodity price will drive up cost and cut into corporation’s profit. And this is difficult to be passed to the end consumers. Every company which can not control the natural resource input will be hurt hardly in this transition.
On the demand side, we know US economy will be slowing down. So companies who focus on US market, especially consumer product market will be negatively affected.
Here again, globalization will save those corporations with diversified markets. Emerging economies will likely maintain strong growth. South America, Russia, and Australia will prosper due to the raw material boom. Europe is another risk, but European companies’ hard work to transfer manufacture to low cost regions, Euro’s emerge, and the improved flexibility across the European countries in the past years have made Europea stronger economy compared to a decade ago.
As a summary, corporation profit will likely to grow more slowly in 2008. Itmay even be flat or down, if Europe has a sudden unexpected slow-down. However, the impact will be dramatically uneven, with some companies hit hard, and some others even benefiting from the process (those who have globalized market and can control raw input).
US Stock Market
I mentioned that prolonged benefit from globalization will somehow offset risk from commodity inflation and any weakness in a single market. So for long term (1-10 years), I don’t think stagflation in 70s will come back, and rather suspect we are still in the middle of the secular bull market brought by deeper globalization, more sophisticated economic/monetary policy, and continuous productivity gain from innovation and information technology investment.
This doesn’t say that we won’t see corrections, even major corrections (20– 30% down). But they won’t be long and staggering, like those in 70s’.
Still, 2008 will likely be a lackluster year for stock. No matter if we willhave an actual recession, the fear will likely throw the market up and downdramacitally, especially in the first half of the year. But honestly, no matter it is 3% or 10% rise in year end, I don’t think that forecast reallymatters a lot. Instead, I am sure about two things: First, it will be a volatile year. A lot of structural changes are happening for the economy, and a lot of contradictive forces are emerging in the market. Second, we will see huge uneven performance from companies across different sectors, regions, and with different relative strength – some will prosper and others will fall down like stones. So, be cautious and be selective.
--
※ 来源:·WWW 未名空间站 海外: mitbbs.com 中国: mitbbs.cn·[FROM: 64.4.]
发信人: desertz (我所热爱的传说), 信区: Stock
标 题: 2008 Stock Market View (II)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 4 20:00:57 2008)
Now let’s look into the sectors.
Natural Resource
The natural resource sector will continue the boom into 2008. However, therehas been a great run so far and most of commodities are at historical high,so it doesn’t look as safe as one or two years ago. We need to look more closely at the fundamental dynamics to distinguish values from hypes.
Out of the all resources, I think oil and agriculture are the most promising. This is drawn from the analysis of long term demand and supply. I won’t repeat the long story here. But in short, these two are the ones that are the most difficult to increase supply and with inflexible demand. The unbalance of supply and demand will last far longer than most people can think of. So they fall into the so called “secular” boom category. My forecast is oil will reach $150 as early as in 2008, and prices for all the agriculture products will continue to rise.
I see more uncertainty in the development of other commodities, especially gold (and other precious metals). First, not like oil, gold doesn’t disappear after being consumed, only to be recycled, so in theory we will have more and more gold available with year after year production. Second, gold’s role as a financial reserve choice is much less significant nowadays. Third, gold’s current appreciation is tied closed to dollar’s depreciation. Although dollar inclines to the further down trend, I really suspect how long this trend will sustain. My instinct is that it may be not very far to the bottom and the dollar may reverse the decline against Euro sometime in 2008. At least there is a lot of uncertainty involved here. Backa step, if you are certain dollar will depreciate, why not short dollar directly? Historical record shows the precious metals have the worst long-term performance compared to other commodities adjusted to inflation.
As a whole, commodities will continue to boom in 2008, but I would focus on oil and agriculture and be cautious on others.
Financials
No need to repeat the current state of financial industry. The question is, where is the bottom? I believe many people are eyeing the premium names likeCitigroup, which is cut half on stock price and wondering if it is the timeto step in. I can not say more than a few guesses since I am not expert in the industry. First, don’t try to guess how deep the water is if you are not capable. Only well-educated and well-informed can make a good fortune. Second, try to distinguish one-time event from repeating ones. Sub-prime write-off is one time. Permanent losing securitization business is repeating. Default provision is one time, disappearing loan customer is repeating. Aslong as you are confident about to do this, you can try your luck. The third is, as a long term value investor, bear market is the best opportunityto get rich. You identify the ones which are strong and suffer from only temporary bad environment. But the process will be painful.
Consumer product
Consumer product is not promising in 2008. We already see consumer discretionary (dining, apparel, auto) fall hard when the economy poses to slow down. But even consumer staple won’t be saved in a consumer-led recession, though they will fall less. The food companies will continue to struggle to code with the skyrocketing raw material cost and lukewarm end user demand. As long as they don’t control their raw input, they will suffer. We will see the highly-respected brands dive to water through the next few months. When everyone lost hope, then maybe it is the opportunity to grab a few shares. Overall, I see it is easier to do the bottom fish herecompared to financials. It is not because the timing is easier. It is because it is more transparent to outsiders, and you know consumers will pick up stream finally and those highly-respected brands will be fine then.
However, there are always a few bright spots in the depressed industry. I see some major trends are emerging and they will change the consumers and the industry.
The first is the transition of shopping to online. Amazon/Ebay/Google will buck the industry’s atmosphere and continue to prosper. The second is portable electronic devices (or gadgets)’s moving to mainstream. We alreadysaw the blowout of GPS and smartphone in the past year. And we will see continuous emerge of new devices. The third is the new gaming/entertaining industry. Game console transition and PC/gadget’s convergence will continueto help this industry to grow in 2008.
※ 来源:·WWW 未名空间站 海外: mitbbs.com 中国: mitbbs.cn·[FROM: 64.4.]
Thursday, January 3, 2008
TOMORROW WATCHLIST 01-04-2008
发信人: eric717 (eric), 信区: Stock标 题: Apple Trading From 90 to 200 - Lessons Learned发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 2 23:21:53 2008)
I closed out all my January Apple options at the opening this morning including 500 Jan 150 calls and 200 Jan 180 and Jan 200 calls as planned to delay tax payment to this year. In addition I closed all my Jan 100 and Jan 130 RIMM calls. All of them made money except Jan 130 RIMM call, which lost about 80% of value. 2007 has been a wonderful year to me and it surpasses myprevious record year 1999 in terms of percentage gain when I rode YHOO and CMGI options to my first 1 million. I traded my call Apple positions three times and Apple alone is more than a 10 bagger for me. I would like to take this opportunity to look back my trading using Apple as an example and discuss the lessons learned. Most of them can be applied to general stock investment.
I have been trading my core Apple options three times this year. First on the week of Iphone announcement, I bought Jan 120 call when the stock is in 90s and sold all my position on the first day of Iphone sale in June when Apple reaches high 120s. I reentered the position of Jan 150 call the next week and sold them when Apple reaches high 140s. The last set of Jan 150, 180 and 200 calls entered mostly in August crash and I added some positions in November when Apple dropped to 170. I will discuss in detail the rationalof how decisions were made for each round of trades and some strategies I used.
To understand my trading style you have to be aware of the compliance restrictions on my trading. I have to wait xx days after submitting a trade request to execute trades. In another word I have to be able to predict whatwill happen xx days before, which is almost impossible. For all three rounds of enter and exit my positions, round one buy and sell, round two buyand round three sell can be planned ahead of time since we all know the events before they announce. In terms of timing on round two sell and round three buy I have to admit I am a little bit lucky. Due to this trading restriction I can only make intermediate to long term trades. So far the total compensation package I got from my current firm still worth this sacrifice.
First topic I want to discuss is related with the use of FA and TA in trading. For me FA will decide which stock I play. In Apple’s case, after doing intensive research on Iphone I am convinced that it will be a breakthrough product and will have huge impact on its earnings in next couple of years. I missed stock run-up on iPod launch and I am not going to miss this time again. That’s the reason I entered my initial Jan 120 call. But it doesn’t mean stocks with strong fundamentals will go straight up. Quite often it may get overbought on momentum and get ahead of itself. Underthis scenario, TA can help you make sell decisions. Personally I like to use the following TA indicators to predict the direction of the overall market: index put/call ratio, NYSE and NASD overbought/oversold oscillator and VIX. In my case I want to capture macro-cycle of market movement insteadof micro-cycle movement and combine that with TA of individual stock to make decisions. This is partly due to my trading style and partly due to my believing that no one can predict each small movement accurately as I see first-hand example of many professional traders over the years. Conversely we can also make buy decisions on individual stock with strong fundamentals when overall market is oversold. In general it’s a good bet in the past forme the stock reaches bottom if it has a big reversal day with huge volume, down big at open and come back gradually and close in positive. The stock like Apple with strong FA and momentum usually bottoms before overall marketbottom out and rebounds before overall market start recovery. There are twoways to buy, some people want to confirm it’s already bottomed out and on the rise or you decide the price is good enough to pick up the shares even if it may have more downside to go. Too often people are either scared to buy and always try to pick up the exact low which is impossible. In case of Apple, if you believe it will reach 200 by the end of the year in November crash, pick up shares at 170 is not bad at all. That’s exactly what I am doing when I entered some Jan 180 calls when the stock is around 170. The sign of recovery I use to judge is if the stock keep making higher high and higher low with increasing volume.
Second topic I want to discuss is how to take advantage of being a small investor. Buy and hold strategy for a stock like Apple is fine as long as fundamental are not change and you don’t have much time to follow the market. For small investors if you have time to follow the market and are good at it you should take advantage of quickness and flexibility. In the word of Deporre, noted stock market investor and writer for realmoney.com, the key of maximizing assets is shark investing – protecting capital while aggressively pursuing profits. I would recommend you to read his book ‘Invest Like a Shark’. As long as you can capture each macro-cycle movement over the year (usually there are three or four of them) in long or short side or both you will make good amount of money. Obviously some people can even capture most of micro-cycles like PSP in this board but it’s very difficult to do that for most of people. I would suggest being good at trading on large movement first.
Third topic I want to discuss is about trading options. I have written one articles in the past to emphasize risk management. It’s so important and I can emphasize enough. In November crash my 500 Jan 150 call lose value of 1 million in a week (option price dropped from 40 to 20 when stock drop from 190s to 160s). The reason I am not panic is first I used the gains I made early of the year on APPLE and FXI, LFC to open this position and second I opened position in a relatively low price (6-7). What I emphasize here is two things: first only use the money you can lose to play the options; second if you miss the entry points don’t try to chase it just wait until next opportunity. Another thing I want to emphasize again is that you don’tput a lot of money to play short-term options. Only open the positions three-or four money down the road or even longer. In this way if something unexpected happens you still have time to recovery.
Fourth topic is about FX option trading. I allocated small part of my capital to trade FX options. In FX trading the margin can be as high as 200:1. I made some long term bet on USD/EUR, USD/CAD and USD/JPY move and it’s quite rewarding. If you have time and money you can consider to trade small capital on different asset class not just stocks. Obviously you have to knowwhat you are doing.
Some predictions for 2008, it will be a roller coaster. I am considering thefollowing stocks to trade: AAPL, RIMM. AMZN, CME, MA, FSLR and PCLN so far. It could be in long side or short side. In terms of Apple, here’s my prediction: I don’t think it will drop significantly from here giving MAC conference and Jan earnings. Any significant drop is a chance to pick up shares and sell on the day before MAC conference announcement. I think it will drop like the past couple of years after announcement. I would pick up the shares and sell after earnings announcement. I think significant correction will not happen after earnings run-up. I opened some April 210 calls today to play this event. In terms of Apple price for 2008 I think it will have the chance to reach 250-300 range considering ultra-thin notebook and 3G Iphone release. I may be wrong. Trade at your own risk.
※ 来源:·WWW 未名空间站 海外: mitbbs.com 中国: mitbbs.cn·[FROM: 66.31.]
I closed out all my January Apple options at the opening this morning including 500 Jan 150 calls and 200 Jan 180 and Jan 200 calls as planned to delay tax payment to this year. In addition I closed all my Jan 100 and Jan 130 RIMM calls. All of them made money except Jan 130 RIMM call, which lost about 80% of value. 2007 has been a wonderful year to me and it surpasses myprevious record year 1999 in terms of percentage gain when I rode YHOO and CMGI options to my first 1 million. I traded my call Apple positions three times and Apple alone is more than a 10 bagger for me. I would like to take this opportunity to look back my trading using Apple as an example and discuss the lessons learned. Most of them can be applied to general stock investment.
I have been trading my core Apple options three times this year. First on the week of Iphone announcement, I bought Jan 120 call when the stock is in 90s and sold all my position on the first day of Iphone sale in June when Apple reaches high 120s. I reentered the position of Jan 150 call the next week and sold them when Apple reaches high 140s. The last set of Jan 150, 180 and 200 calls entered mostly in August crash and I added some positions in November when Apple dropped to 170. I will discuss in detail the rationalof how decisions were made for each round of trades and some strategies I used.
To understand my trading style you have to be aware of the compliance restrictions on my trading. I have to wait xx days after submitting a trade request to execute trades. In another word I have to be able to predict whatwill happen xx days before, which is almost impossible. For all three rounds of enter and exit my positions, round one buy and sell, round two buyand round three sell can be planned ahead of time since we all know the events before they announce. In terms of timing on round two sell and round three buy I have to admit I am a little bit lucky. Due to this trading restriction I can only make intermediate to long term trades. So far the total compensation package I got from my current firm still worth this sacrifice.
First topic I want to discuss is related with the use of FA and TA in trading. For me FA will decide which stock I play. In Apple’s case, after doing intensive research on Iphone I am convinced that it will be a breakthrough product and will have huge impact on its earnings in next couple of years. I missed stock run-up on iPod launch and I am not going to miss this time again. That’s the reason I entered my initial Jan 120 call. But it doesn’t mean stocks with strong fundamentals will go straight up. Quite often it may get overbought on momentum and get ahead of itself. Underthis scenario, TA can help you make sell decisions. Personally I like to use the following TA indicators to predict the direction of the overall market: index put/call ratio, NYSE and NASD overbought/oversold oscillator and VIX. In my case I want to capture macro-cycle of market movement insteadof micro-cycle movement and combine that with TA of individual stock to make decisions. This is partly due to my trading style and partly due to my believing that no one can predict each small movement accurately as I see first-hand example of many professional traders over the years. Conversely we can also make buy decisions on individual stock with strong fundamentals when overall market is oversold. In general it’s a good bet in the past forme the stock reaches bottom if it has a big reversal day with huge volume, down big at open and come back gradually and close in positive. The stock like Apple with strong FA and momentum usually bottoms before overall marketbottom out and rebounds before overall market start recovery. There are twoways to buy, some people want to confirm it’s already bottomed out and on the rise or you decide the price is good enough to pick up the shares even if it may have more downside to go. Too often people are either scared to buy and always try to pick up the exact low which is impossible. In case of Apple, if you believe it will reach 200 by the end of the year in November crash, pick up shares at 170 is not bad at all. That’s exactly what I am doing when I entered some Jan 180 calls when the stock is around 170. The sign of recovery I use to judge is if the stock keep making higher high and higher low with increasing volume.
Second topic I want to discuss is how to take advantage of being a small investor. Buy and hold strategy for a stock like Apple is fine as long as fundamental are not change and you don’t have much time to follow the market. For small investors if you have time to follow the market and are good at it you should take advantage of quickness and flexibility. In the word of Deporre, noted stock market investor and writer for realmoney.com, the key of maximizing assets is shark investing – protecting capital while aggressively pursuing profits. I would recommend you to read his book ‘Invest Like a Shark’. As long as you can capture each macro-cycle movement over the year (usually there are three or four of them) in long or short side or both you will make good amount of money. Obviously some people can even capture most of micro-cycles like PSP in this board but it’s very difficult to do that for most of people. I would suggest being good at trading on large movement first.
Third topic I want to discuss is about trading options. I have written one articles in the past to emphasize risk management. It’s so important and I can emphasize enough. In November crash my 500 Jan 150 call lose value of 1 million in a week (option price dropped from 40 to 20 when stock drop from 190s to 160s). The reason I am not panic is first I used the gains I made early of the year on APPLE and FXI, LFC to open this position and second I opened position in a relatively low price (6-7). What I emphasize here is two things: first only use the money you can lose to play the options; second if you miss the entry points don’t try to chase it just wait until next opportunity. Another thing I want to emphasize again is that you don’tput a lot of money to play short-term options. Only open the positions three-or four money down the road or even longer. In this way if something unexpected happens you still have time to recovery.
Fourth topic is about FX option trading. I allocated small part of my capital to trade FX options. In FX trading the margin can be as high as 200:1. I made some long term bet on USD/EUR, USD/CAD and USD/JPY move and it’s quite rewarding. If you have time and money you can consider to trade small capital on different asset class not just stocks. Obviously you have to knowwhat you are doing.
Some predictions for 2008, it will be a roller coaster. I am considering thefollowing stocks to trade: AAPL, RIMM. AMZN, CME, MA, FSLR and PCLN so far. It could be in long side or short side. In terms of Apple, here’s my prediction: I don’t think it will drop significantly from here giving MAC conference and Jan earnings. Any significant drop is a chance to pick up shares and sell on the day before MAC conference announcement. I think it will drop like the past couple of years after announcement. I would pick up the shares and sell after earnings announcement. I think significant correction will not happen after earnings run-up. I opened some April 210 calls today to play this event. In terms of Apple price for 2008 I think it will have the chance to reach 250-300 range considering ultra-thin notebook and 3G Iphone release. I may be wrong. Trade at your own risk.
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Tuesday, January 1, 2008
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